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ARS Home » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #228988
Title: Predicting rainfall beyond tomorrow

Author
item Schneider, Jeanne
item SAMMIS, THEODORE - NM STATE UNIV.

Submitted to: Miscellaneous Publishing Information Bulletin
Publication Type: Other
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/15/2008
Publication Date: 7/31/2008
Citation: Schneider, J.M., Sammis, T. 2008. Predicting rainfall beyond tomorrow. New Mexico State University, New Mexico Climate Newsletter. 6(2):6-13.

Interpretive Summary: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues climate precipitation forecasts that offer potential support for water resource managers and farmers and ranchers in New Mexico, but the forecasts are frequently misunderstood and not widely used in practical decision making. The objectives of this newsletter article are to introduce and explain the climate forecasts to managers in New Mexico, and to outline how the forecasts could be appropriately used in decision support. Examples of recent forecasts are presented and explained with a minimum of technical language. A simple set of practical considerations before use of the forecasts is also presented. Previously published results on climate forecast skill for New Mexico are reiterated and explained. Precipitation forecasts for 3-month periods do have some skill at 3 to 6 month lead times over much of New Mexico. Finally, due to the complexity of determining climate forecast impacts on a daily basis for a specific location, users are referred to university or extension specialists for highly specific application needs.

Technical Abstract: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues climate precipitation forecasts that offer potential support for water resource managers and farmers and ranchers in New Mexico, but the forecasts are frequently misunderstood and not widely used in practical decision making. The objectives of this newsletter article are to introduce and explain the climate forecasts to managers in New Mexico, and to outline how the forecasts could be appropriately used in decision support. Examples of recent forecasts are presented and explained with a minimum of technical language. A simple set of practical considerations before use of the forecasts is also presented. Previously published results on climate forecast skill for New Mexico are reiterated and explained. Precipitation forecasts for 3-month periods do have some skill at 3 to 6 month lead times over much of New Mexico. Finally, due to the complexity of determining climate forecast impacts on a daily basis for a specific location, users are referred to university or extension specialists for highly specific application needs.