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ARS Home » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #123631
Title: THE IMPACT OF ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS ON CLIMATE: UNSOLVED PROBLEMS

Author
item SOON, W - HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CTR
item BALIUNAS, S - HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CTR
item DEMIRCHAN, K - RUSSIAN ACAD OF SCIENCE
item Idso, Sherwood
item KONDRATYEV, K - RUSSIAN ACAD OF SCIENCE
item POSMENTIER, E - RUSSIAN ACAD OF SCIENCE

Submitted to: Proceedings of the Russian Geographical Society
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/1/2001
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: As the carbon dioxide (CO2) content of earth's atmosphere continues to rise, supposedly in response to emissions of CO2 resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil, concern grows about its potential environmental impact. We review this issue and find that, to date, it is not possible to attribute observed changes in climate to the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This information should be of great interest to people responsible for developing national and international policies relative to man's role in the initiation and control of global environmental change.

Technical Abstract: We review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation, and their spatial and temporal variability. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. Our review does not disprove the existence of a significant anthropogenic influence on global climate, but illuminates areas for further improvement required to make the case one way or the other.