Verification, Validation and Program Evaluation: ARS currently conducts a series of review processes designed to ensure the relevance and quality of its research work and to maintain the highest possible standards for its scientists. This process involves customer input to help keep the research focused on the technical needs of the American food and agricultural system. Each of the approximately 1,100 research projects, which are organized into 22 National Programs, undergoes a thorough merit review before new or renewed activities are begun. All ARS employees, including the scientific workforce, are subject to annual performance reviews. Senior scientists undergo a rigorous peer review (Research Position Evaluation System•RPES) on a 3- to 5-year cycle. These processes ensure the continuing high quality of the ARS scientific workforce.

Key External Factors that Affect the Ability of ARS to Achieve its Goals and Objectives: The future of American agriculture depends on its ability to respond to critical external factors. Effective planning within ARS will take these factors into consideration when establishing and executing the Agency•s research programs.

Globalization: The globalization of all aspects of the food and fiber system is having a major impact on American agriculture. Profound changes are seen worldwide from competitive markets around the world, to diseases not limited to national boundaries, to population growth and evolving diets. These changes have led to a dramatically new trade environment, threats of exotic diseases and pests to domestic production, and international controversies over the use of biotechnology. To remain competitive, the food and agriculture sector needs to take these developments into consideration.

Information Access and Communication: The explosion of information technology in the 1990s, the worldwide use of the Internet, and the major advancements of cyberspace communications are changing the way private industry, government, and individuals conduct daily business. Vast amounts of information soon will be available in "real time," more people from around the world will be able to retrieve the information, and advanced computer software will make this information more useful and meaningful. The advancements in communications technology offer opportunities for everyone involved in the American food and agriculture sector.

Workforce: A very important employment issue is the need to obtain and retain a highly skilled and technically well trained Federal workforce. The low U.S. unemployment rate of the 1990s is expected to continue into the 21st century, making recruitment highly competitive. This competitive environment is expected to require more employer emphasis on recruitment, retention, student employment, upward mobility, and training/retraining programs. The public sector will need to recruit a diversity of people and to maintain a highly qualified and technically competent workforce. Expanding job opportunities for women and minorities in science, engineering, economics, and statistics will help tap the Nation•s human potential.

Technology: Advances in technology--such as bioengineering, precision agriculture, remote sensing, and decision modeling--can transform agricultural production to enhance nutrition, protect the environment, and continue to make the food supply safe. Biotechnology offers great promise for increases in production efficiency, improved food quality, and enhanced nutritional value. However, concerns about genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have had a marked impact on international exports of affected commodities and prompted questions about the potential benefits and risks. Precision agriculture, remote sensing, and decision modeling will both increase production efficiency and mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of agriculture. Public concern about food safety has led to new rapid detection technologies that, when fully implemented, will make the food supply increasingly safer.

Public Policy Framework and Policy Context: Starting in the 1930s, public policy on agriculture was aimed at addressing farm income levels that were significantly below the average in the rest of the U.S. A slow and uneven evolution away from Federal intervention in markets culminated in 1996, when Congress enacted the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act, which phased out Federal price support programs. Since then, variability in prices has prompted legislation to provide emergency assistance to farmers, which again has raised issues relating to risk management and the well-being of producers. In the 21^st century, farm policy is no longer the only area of public policy important to U.S. agriculture. Increasingly, issues relating to environmental quality, food safety, consumers, food security, nutrition, and trade have emerged as major forces influencing agriculture.

Changing Demographics: Growing global populations, demographic changes, and economic growth will substantially increase the demand for agricultural products, thus creating new markets for American products. At the same time, increased agricultural competitiveness in other countries will force U.S. agriculture to become more efficient. Because arable agricultural land is limited, the growing demands will increase pressure to maximize yields, protect marginal areas from unsustainable development, and minimize the harmful effects of agriculture on the environment and the natural resource base.

Changing Structure of Agriculture: The structure of the food and fiber system--from farm to market--changed dramatically in the last decades of the 20^th century, and is likely to continue. Change can be seen all across the food and agriculture sectors. An increasing share of U.S. food and fiber is being produced on fewer, larger, and more specialized farms. Firms are larger, and production methods are more specialized. Production and marketing are more vertically and horizontally integrated. Concentration is greater characterized by sharp declines in the number of buyers and sellers of a product. Consumer preferences, new technology, and global markets bring about continuing changes that affect farmers, processors, marketers, and consumers.

Congressional Support: The ability of ARS to respond to the many and diverse needs of producers and consumers is determined by the Appropriations Act. As a consequence of inflation and higher operating costs associated with advances in research equipment and technology, the ARS scientific workforce, which reached a maximum of about 3,400 scientists in 1970, decreased by almost 40 percent during the ensuing 25 years. More recently, appropriations have allowed the Agency to expand its research program and hire additional scientists. Because of widespread concern about managing the Federal budget surpluses to reduce the debt and maintain the long-term viability of the Social Security Trust Funds and selected mandatory programs, future discretionary budgets including ARS• are expected to remain relatively tight.

Drug-Free Workplace: ARS will continue to use the applicable contract clauses and regulations to ensure compliance with drug-free workplace debarment and suspension requirements in all of its acquisition programs.

General Comments: In January 1998, ARS requested permission from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) "to describe specific and tangible products, steps, intermediate goals, and/or accomplishments that will demonstrate that the Agency has successfully met each Performance Measure/Goal in a given fiscal year." With OMB•s concurrence, the ARS is able to use narrative descriptions of intermediate outcomes and indicators of progress instead of numerical metrics as specified in GPRA. The indicators shown represent intermediate outcomes, significant products or anticipated impacts of the Agency•s work which will serve as measurable milestones during FY 2002 and FY 2003. The research and technology transfer activities listed in this exhibit are not all inclusive of the Agency•s work. The indicators reflect but do not adequately capture the broad range of basic research that underpins most of the Agency•s work. The following qualitative indicators are specific accomplishments that the Agency anticipates achieving in the designated fiscal year, which constitute milestones or indicators of progress towards meeting the Agency•s goals, objectives, and initiatives.