Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research
Project Number: 3022-32000-064-038-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Jul 31, 2024
End Date: Jul 30, 2026
Objective:
The research project aims to model foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) transmission potential between feral swine and domestic livestock during FMD incursion into the United States (US). The principal goal is to enhance preparedness and to identify research priorities for US incursion by Foreign Animal Disease (FAD), such as FMD and African Swine Fever (ASF). Michigan State University (MSU) will collect, organize, and model feral swine observational data. This effort is designed to quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between feral swine and domestic livestock, including the probability and frequency of direct contact and indirect virus transfer via environmental or fomite contamination. MSU will conduct a comprehensive needs assessment to guide future data collection and FAD modeling efforts connected to feral swine. This includes developing a prioritized list of geographic locations and data types—such as movement, behavior, and genetic data—where additional feral swine data collection is essential. The assessment will highlight how such data, once collected, would enhance analysis and modeling capabilities, thereby aiding in identifying and prioritizing directions for future FMD surveillance and modeling research.
Approach:
In collaboration with the ARS, APHIS, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, and other partners, MSU will focus on modeling FMD transmission potential between feral swine and domestic livestock. This approach includes:
1. Data Collation and Gap Analysis: Inventory of existing feral swine observational data, including swine behavior, movements, and genetics. This task will involve documenting and describing available data to identify gaps that necessitate further collection.
2. Collaborative Data Management: Working with data stewards from federal, state, academic, and non-governmental sectors to align data management with established policies and integrate diverse data types essential for FMD research.
3. Model Development and Refinement: Utilizing statistical or mathematical models to assess FMD transmission potential. These models will be refined through ARS feedback and supplemented by spatial analysis of livestock proximity and environmental factors that influence disease spread.
4. Comprehensive Needs Assessment: Conducting a needs assessment to guide future data collection and modeling efforts, identifying priority geographic locations for additional data collection, and specifying the most critical data types (movement, genetic, occurrence) required for enhanced analysis and modeling.
5. Publishing and Dissemination: Generating insights to inform FMD modeling research, leading to contributions in peer-reviewed publications.
A postdoctoral fellow, supervised by MSU and mentored by ARS, will be dedicated full-time to these efforts, ensuring the project's objectives are met with scientific rigor and precision.
