Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research
Project Number: 3022-32000-064-041-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Aug 1, 2024
End Date: Jul 31, 2026
Objective:
This project will develop and apply novel modeling techniques to simulate Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak scenarios to enhance preparedness against potential FMDV incursions into USA. By integrating parameters estimated from ARS laboratories and field studies, the cooperator researchers will simulate disease spread and response across multiple US regions for both Beef and Dairy cattle index cases; the approach will utilize both the FMD National Model (ISP-platform) and new beta models under development at Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health (CEAH/APHIS/USDA). Aimed at identifying general principles for resource allocation, the project will employ multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and extend game theoretic analysis to incorporate cooperative game theory, focusing on bargaining and coalition building. An economic component will compare simulated impacts on business continuity, recovery, and resource allocation at both the federal/state and individual producer levels. This comprehensive methodology, underscored by a commitment to model validation, transparency, and stakeholder engagement, will help refine CEAH beta models and innovate preparedness strategies for Foreign Animal Disease incursions.
Approach:
The project methodology is designed to leverage cooperator’s expertise in epidemiological modeling and agricultural industry analysis in partnership with the ARS and CEAH. The approach will encompass the following key activities:
1. Collaborative Simulation Design and Execution: Cooperator will use its epidemiological modeling and agricultural industry expertise to support ARS in the design and iterative simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US.
2. Advanced Analytical Methods: In addition to executing simulations, the cooperator will develop and apply multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and cooperative game theoretic analysis. These methods will be enhanced by incorporating an economic evaluation component to compare simulated impacts on business continuity, recovery, and resource allocation at both the federal/state and individual producer levels.
3. Collaborative Analysis and Dissemination: the cooperator, ARS, and CEAH will collaborate closely on analyzing simulation outputs. The team will draft manuscripts describing the findings and their implications for FMD outbreak preparedness and response, targeting submission to peer-reviewed journals.
4. Research Team and Support Structure: The project will be carried out by a dedicated research team, including two postdoctoral fellows, under the supervision of the cooperator PI and with mentorship and support from the ARS PI and co-PI.
