Location: Food Systems Research Unit
Project Number: 8090-10700-001-000-D
Project Type: In-House Appropriated
Start Date: Feb 28, 2024
End Date: Feb 27, 2029
Objective:
Objective 1. Assess the changes needed within supply chains and across agricultural landscapes for food systems to provide animal-sourced foods in amounts and preparations that support improved nutrition and human health and improved economic, environmental, and social sustainability.
Sub-objective 1A. Estimate the range in animal-sourced protein (A.S.P.) consumption over which food systems leverage humanly non-edible feeds to produce livestock products, thereby enabling diets that include A.S.P. to support at least as many people as a vegan diet.
Sub-objective 1.B. Examine trends in the Northeastern dairy industry and identify potential impacts and opportunities related to dairy transitions for social, environmental, and regional food availability outcomes.
Objective 2. Identify barriers to and motivators for improving nutrition, human health, and sustainability across scales from individual and household eating patterns to broader food system strategies.
Sub-Objective 2A. Using household-level Informational Research, Inc. (IRI) scanner data, identify diversity and variability in rural diets and diet health relative to the Healthy Eating Index (H.E.I.). Analysis will be used to explain what rural people are eating and why and to inform future solutions.
Approach:
Agency scientists will use a combination of modeling, secondary data analysis, and stakeholder interviews to conduct three discrete research activities:
1. Model the land requirements of diet and U.S. agricultural carrying capacity,
2. Characterize land use transitions associated with the northeast dairy industry,
3. Assess the nutritional quality of regional food purchase patterns and motivations for improvement.
The U.S. Foodprint model will be used to estimate the influence of animal-sourced protein (A.S.P.) consumption on the human carrying capacity of the conterminous U.S. The model estimates land requirements associated with production of a complete diet composed of a set of primary food commodities based on crop yields and livestock feed efficiencies, then determines the population of people that could be fed from available arable and grazing land. Carrying capacity will be estimated across a range of isocaloric, healthy diet scenarios varied in terms of the daily average intake of A.S.P. (in g day-1) but consistent with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The model will be run over multiple years to examine annual variability in carrying capacity. The sensitivity of model results to variation in the availability of total human-inedible feedstuffs, such as food byproducts and pasture biomass, will also be explored.
Agency scientists will use a two-phased mixed-methods design to examine what dairy land transitions mean for future food production in the northeast. In phase one of the study, a geospatial and statistical approach will identify 1) spatial trends in land use transition rates in and out of dairy production in Vermont and New York for the period of 2000-2022 and 2) relationships between dairy land-use transitions and social and environmental factors. In phase two of the study, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with farmers and non-farmers representing categories of land use transitions identified in phase one of the study to explore impacts on individuals and communities. The two phases of the study will be integrated to identify what is happening to the landscape, what might be driving those changes, whether and how people are able to access land that remains in agriculture, and what these patterns mean for food production in the region.
Household scanner data on grocery purchases will be used to evaluate and compare the healthfulness of rural and nonrural diets in northern New England. Using the USDA's Purchase to Plate Crosswalk tool to link this data to the USDA's Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, the project will assess how well purchases conform to Dietary Guidelines for Americans, represented by the Healthy Eating Index. It will further measure the ratio of household spending on different food groups and test the difference in spending between households purchasing similar diet quality. Complementary secondary data sources for demographic, environmental, and economic information will be used to characterize specific communities. Qualitative focus groups will aid in understanding factors that lead to relative healthfulness of diets based on community.
