Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research
Project Number: 3022-32000-064-040-N
Project Type: Non-Funded Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: May 6, 2024
End Date: May 4, 2026
Objective:
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) threatens animal health and welfare, the United States (US) economy, and global food security. Recognizing its potential to devastate livestock populations, disrupt international trade, and compromise essential food resources, this research collaboration between the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Cooperator will model the long-distance dispersal capacity of FMD, assuming an incursion into the US. By leveraging spatial modeling and simulation techniques that integrate empirical data from FMD endemic regions and historical European outbreaks, this project aims to enhance predictive capabilities and inform the development of effective disease control and prevention strategies. The multiscale spatial dynamics of FMD spread will be the main focus, including point-level initial incursions, variable local disease prevalence, continental scale dispersal capacity, and control measure efficacy under simulated US incursion scenarios; this effort aims to improve preparedness and response to potential FMD outbreaks.
Approach:
This collaboration between the Cooperator and ARS will entail a comprehensive approach leveraging spatially explicit statistical and mathematical modeling. The approach is structured as follows:
1. Data Collation and Integration: We will compile and assess a wide range of empirical data from FMD endemic regions and historical outbreaks in Europe.
2. Spatial Model Development: Utilizing advanced spatial modeling techniques, we will construct models capable of simulating the long-distance dispersal of FMD within the United States. These models will incorporate multiscale spatial dynamics to accurately reflect the complex interactions between disease spread, host population structures, and landscape features.
3. Model Validation and Refinement: Models will be tested against empirical data and best judgment to validate their accuracy and reliability. This iterative process will allow us to refine our models based on real-world outcomes, ensuring they are predictive and applicable to policymaking.
4. Collaborative Analysis and Scenario Testing: In partnership, ARS and the Cooperator will conduct detailed analyses of model outputs to identify critical risk factors and potential hotspots for FMD incursion and spread. Scenario testing will help evaluate the relative effectiveness of various disease control and prevention strategies, informing policy and operational recommendations.
5. Dissemination of Findings: Results from our collaborative research will be disseminated through scientific publications, presentations at conferences, and direct communications with animal health and disease control stakeholders.
This structured approach ensures a comprehensive understanding of FMD's long-distance dispersal dynamics and informs the development of targeted strategies to mitigate the disease's impact. Through this collaboration, the Cooperator and the ARS are committed to advancing the science of disease modeling and to enhancing the preparedness and response capabilities of the United States and the global community against FMD outbreaks.
