Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research
Project Number: 3022-32000-064-042-N
Project Type: Non-Funded Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Jul 8, 2024
End Date: Jul 3, 2026
Objective:
This agreement will advance cooperative research through model-based simulation and epidemiological parameter development to assess the spread of foreign animal diseases (FAD) by feral swine in the United States (U.S.). The effort will focus on the joint analysis of unique and extensive feral swine data collected and maintained by APHIS, including the Feral Swine Genetic Archive, which houses approximately 24,000 high-resolution SNP genotypes, a feral swine database of GPS tracking data for over 800 individuals monitored across 11 states, data describing management removal activities, and epidemiological parameters recently collated from experts and assessed through simulation modeling. These unparalleled resources will underpin the development, refinement, and calibration of models and epidemiological parameters to enhance the USDA’s risk assessment capability for Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), African Swine Fever (ASF), and other FAD potentially transmitted by feral swine in the U.S.
Priority will be given to four key areas, each with specific outcomes and deliverables. These include:
1. Document and synthesize insights from prior parameter sensitivity analyses from feral swine to domestic livestock disease transmission simulations. This task will culminate in a peer-reviewed manuscript summarizing sensitivity analysis results and include knowledge transfer to APHIS Veterinary Services staff to inform emergency response planning.
2. Extend a simulation modeling framework to various surveillance designs to assess early FAD detection probabilities under different contexts and scenarios. This objective will evaluate various spatiotemporal layouts and diagnostic assays to identify the most efficacious designs for early detection and comprehensive surveillance during outbreak response.
3. Develop a risk assessment framework to estimate the potential for FAD introduction and establishment in the U.S. The framework will include different introduction pathways, such as air travel passengers, seaports, and mail interdiction, as well as factors influencing feral swine population trends, like feral swine density and wildlife interactions at landfills and composting facilities.
4. Enhance communication and coordination among the ARS, APHIS, and collaborative researchers at Michigan State University to ensure a cohesive and synergistic approach to FMD and ASF preparedness in the U.S. This initiative will include participation in interdisciplinary meetings, data exchange, and the sharing and transfer of findings to support disease surveillance and outbreak response by APHIS Veterinary Services.
Approach:
This project will implement an interdisciplinary approach to assess the spread of FMD, ASF, and other FADs by feral swine in the U.S. The project will harness the collaborative expertise of ARS, APHIS, and cooperating researchers from Michigan State University to deploy spatiotemporal modeling techniques and comprehensive data analysis. The methodology is designed to optimize existing datasets, enhance the precision and realism of epidemiological models, and develop effective surveillance and risk assessment tools.
Data Integration and Analysis: Central to the methodology is the integration of datasets assembled by APHIS represented the Feral Swine Genetic Archive and feral swine movement data to enable an integrated analysis of feral swine behaviors, movements, translocation patterns, and genetic predispositions to disease spread. By combining these datasets with recently assessed epidemiological parameters, the project will refine the inputs for simulation models, ensuring they reflect the real-world complexities of feral swine disease transmission dynamics.
Model Development and Refinement: Building on the foundation of integrated data, new model simulations will be performed to estimate FAD detection probabilities under various surveillance designs. These models will apply a range of spatiotemporal configurations and diagnostic assays, aiming to identify the most effective strategies for early detection and outbreak surveillance. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to understand the influence of different epidemiological parameters on disease spread, aiding in the refinement and calibration of models for enhanced accuracy and realism.
Quantitative Risk Assessment: Development of a risk assessment framework to quantify FAD outbreak risks across the U.S., including the risks associated with pathogen introduction and post-introduction establishment and spread. This assessment will inform the development of targeted intervention strategies to mitigate the risk of disease introduction and subsequent spread by feral swine.
Collaboration and Communication: Central to our approach is fostering communication and coordination among the scientists at ARS, APHIS, and cooperating researchers and managers at Michigan State University. Regular meetings and correspondence will ensure a synergistic approach to the project’s aims, facilitating the exchange of insights, findings, and methodologies. This collaborative framework will support the project’s goal to enhance preparedness against FMD, ASF, and other FADs in the U.S.
Publishing and Dissemination: The project will disseminate new findings to APHIS regulators and feral swine managers to ensure timely communication of critical insights and innovative methodologies. Findings will also be reported in peer-reviewed scientific articles to provide science-based solutions that enhance FAD readiness. Adherence to open-access principles and utilizing digital platforms, repositories, and journals will ensure wide accessibility to data, models, and outcomes. This effort will foster a collaborative environment and drive continuous improvement within the field of disease modeling.
