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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Florence, South Carolina » Coastal Plain Soil, Water and Plant Conservation Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #120348
Title: ASSESSING MODEL RESPONSE TO INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

Author
item CARBONE, G - UNIV. SC
item MEARNS, L - NATL. CEN. ATMOSPHER. RES
item Sadler, Edward
item MAVROMATIS, T - UNIV. FL.

Submitted to: Agronomy Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/21/2001
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: As part of a larger study investigating the potential effects of climate change and interannual variability on crop production in the southeastern United States, we evaluated CROPGRO-Soybean performance at eight locations across the region. We ran the model using inputs from nearby cooperative weather stations and from a national soils database. While such analysis limits intensive model validation, it does allow examination of model response to interannual variability over many years. Mean squared deviation between measured and simulated yield varied from 0.25 to 1.75 Mg/ha at individual stations. At most stations, mean simulated yield and the magnitude of simulated interannual variability matched closely. By contrast, the pattern of interannual variability contributed significantly to mean squared deviation. At those stations where mean measured and simulated yield differed greatly, normalization with respect to mean and standard deviation produced more accurate results