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Submitted to: Proceedings International Global Warming Conference
Publication Type: Abstract Only Publication Acceptance Date: 5/20/2005 Publication Date: 6/20/2005 Citation: Zhang, X.J. 2005. Simulating impact of climate change on runoff, erosion, and wheat production using cligen and wepp models. Proceedings International Global Warming Conference. Abstract No. ZX-2083. Interpretive Summary: Abstract Only. Technical Abstract: Climate change can affect agricultural production and soil and water conservation. The objectives of this study were to test a method for downscaling monthly climate forecasts to daily weather series using a climate generator (CLIGEN), and to simulate the potential impacts of projected climate changes on soil erosion and wheat productivity. Monthly forecasts for the periods of 1950-1999 and 2070-2099 for the Oklahoma region, projected by a general circulation model (HadCM3), were used. Projected monthly mean and variance changes in precipitation and temperatures between the two periods at three spatial scales were satisfactorily incorporated into generated daily climate data. Three emissions scenarios (A2a, B2a, and GGa1) were selected. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was run for each scenario under conservation tillage practices. The HadCM3 predicted a general decrease in precipitation and an increase in the east-west precipitation gradient on the Southern Great Plains over the century. The decrease in precipitation resulted in general decreases in predicted runoff and soil loss at Chickasha, Oklahoma. Percent changes, comparing to the present climate, ranged from -33 to -4% for runoff and from -33 to 3% for soil loss. However, wheat grain yield was projected to increase by 0 to 24%, mainly due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration. |
