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ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #179235
Title: METHODS FOR ANALYZING CALIBRATION PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

Author
item Veith, Tameria - Tamie
item GHEBREMICHAEL, L - PENN STATE UNIV
item Van Liew, Michael
item Arnold, Jeffrey

Submitted to: Annual International SWAT Conference
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/30/2005
Publication Date: 7/15/2005
Citation: Veith, T.L., Ghebremichael, L.T., Van Liew, M.W., Arnold, J.G. 2005. Methods for analyzing calibration parameter uncertainty. Annual International SWAT Conference. Paper No. 1.

Interpretive Summary: An interpretive summary is not required.

Technical Abstract: Natural variation in any agricultural ecosystem impacts the degree to which a simulation model can accurately and precisely represent the system. However, due to time, expense, and repeatability limitations with field work, simulation modeling is often the most practical technique for predicting and comparing watershed-scale land management impacts on downstream water quantity and quality. Thus, it is important to understand, as fully as possible, the uncertainties within model input parameters and how these uncertainties affect model outputs. Of particular interest are surface and subsurface hydrologic and nonpoint source parameters to which previous studies have found a particular model is sensitive. The aim of this study is to use current and literature-based modeling efforts to begin a development of guidelines on uncertainty analysis which are understandable to a wide range of modelers.