FORAGE PASTURE PRODUCTION, RISK ANALYSIS AND THE BUFFERING CAPACITY OF TRITICALE (X TRITICOSECALE WITTMACK)

Authors: Clapham, William; Fedders, James; ABAYE, A - VIRGINIA TECH; RAYBURN, E - WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY

Submitted to: Agronomy Journal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/9/2007
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Farming, in general, and grazing livestock enterprises, in particular, are risky business endeavors. Liverstock producers expose themselves to risk with every management decision that they make. Drought and temperature extremes limit production during the growing season, and environmental variability affect seasonal distribution and forage yields. We conducted a study to evaluate the ability of triticale (a hybrid of wheat and rye) to 'fill-in' production gaps. Triticale is relatively tolerant of cold temperatures and drought. We analyzed the data using risk analysis to determine the capacity of tritical to buffer environmental variability and to develop a set of probabilities to predict success or failure of the system. The study showed that, although triticale can be planted over the entire season, planting during June resulted in forage yields during August that surpassed the mixed pasture and lowered risk to the producer. Triticale planted during August, September and October extended the grazing season and lowered risk for the following spring. Using risk analysis permits comparison of grazing systems across or within locations and provides producers with a tool to judge the feasibility of a particular system or treatment.

Technical Abstract: Farming, in general, and grazing livestock enterprises, in particular, are risky business endeavors. Many livestock producers minimize their inputs costs by relying on naturalized, mixed-species pasture, but at the same time expose themselves to risks associated with forage yields that fluctuate in response to variable environmental conditions. A study was designed to assess winter triticale's (X Triticosecale Wittmack) ability to 'fill-in' production gaps of perennial mixed pasture or in other words to 'buffer' pasture production in the Central Appalachian Region of the eastern United States. Triticale was chosen because it has demonstrated tolerance to cold temperatures (common during early and late portions of our grazing season) and drought (a common mid- to late-season phenomena). Triticale was sown each month from May until October in replicated plots for 5 consecutive years. Initial triticale harvests were made 6 weeks after sowing with subsequent harvests taken at 4-week intervals, as possible, through October during the year of establishment and in early April and May in the spring following establishment. The mean and standard deviation of forage yield from each planting date and harvest date combination over the five years of study were used to generate probabilities of achieving monthly yield values for triticale and fully-established, mixed-pasture, control plots. Monte Carlo simulation was used to model differences between triticale and control yields. Modeled differences predict that triticale yields in August (June-planted) and October (August-planted) should exceed mixed pasture yields in most years. Triticale planted in July or later months are also expected to more than mixed pasture yields in the following Spring. Generated yield isograms will allow producers to evaluate the probability of achieving specific monthly forage yields and develop forage systems that meet performance goals at a level of risk that an individual farmer defines as acceptable. Risk analysis of yield utilizes the same set of data that is conventionally collected, and permits generalization of yield probabilities based upon the site or across site depending upon the data that has been collected. Probabilities of success or failure can provide a far more meaningful exposition of the data than conventional accumulation of yield and associated analysis of variance.