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ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #204257
Title: Using the SWAT Autocalibration Tool to understand hydrologic parameter and model uncertainty

Author
item Veith, Tameria - Tamie
item VAN GRIENSVEN, A - UNESCO-IHE
item Arnold, Jeffrey

Submitted to: Annual International SWAT Conference
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/20/2006
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: An interpretive summary is not required.

Technical Abstract: Watershed-level modelers have expressed a need, through ongoing discussions within the USDA-ARS Conservation Effects Assessment Program and the broader international research community, for better understanding of uncertainty related to hard-to-measure input parameters and to the remaining internal processes of a model. One water quality model of interest in this regard is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is being used internationally to aid in assessing the effects of various conservation practices. This presentation discusses the three components of the SWAT Autocalibration Tool (i.e. parameter sensitivity analysis, parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty) as applied to stream flow from several diverse United States watersheds. Results are analyzed graphically and via several statistical methods, including Nash-Sutcliffe, coefficient of determination, and percent bias. By applying the Autocalibration Tool and comparing, in particular, model uncertainty results across watersheds, this research furthers the scientific knowledgebase regarding model uncertainty and contributes model uncertainty percentages for reference use within the modeling community.