The Role of Global Climate Patterns on the Spatial and Temporal distribution of Vector-Borne Disease

Authors: Linthicum, Kenneth - Ken; ANYAMBA, ASAPH - NASA-GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; CHRETIEN, JOHN-PAUL - DOD-GEISRS - MARYLAND; SMALL, JENNIFER - NASA-GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; TUCKER, COMPTON - NASA-GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT; Gibson, Seth

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/28/2007
Publication Date: 6/1/2007
Citation: Linthicum, K., Anyamba, A., Chretien, J., Small, J., Tucker, C.J., Britch, S.C. 2007. The Role of Global Climate Patterns on the Spatial and Temporal distribution of Vector-Borne Disease. Symposium on Vector Biology, Ecology and Control on May 29 - June 1, 2007 in Riverside, CA.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Global climate patterns, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO, have been shown to have an impact on vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks. In October 2006 the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warm sea surface temperatures across the Pacific basin may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. Using satellite generated data we are developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions led to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies similar to what has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies conditions were observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2006 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast, northern South America and equatorial Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased risk for disease outbreaks: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and most of the southeast Asia Islands for increased dengue fever transmission and increased respiratory illness; Coastal Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia for increased risk of malaria; Bangladesh and coastal India for elevated risk of cholera; East Africa for increased risk of a Rift Valley fever outbreak and elevated malaria; southwest USA for increased risk for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and plague; southern California for increased West Nile virus transmission; and northeast Brazil for increased dengue fever and respiratory illness. The most recent development of El Niño conditions has significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions will occur. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and efficient planning of operational control programs. In this paper we describe developing global climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks that will give decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.