Cotton Modeling for Climate Change, On-farm Decision Support, and Policy Decisions

Authors: Reddy, Vangimalla; YANG, YANG - UNIV OF MD; REDDY, K R - MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIV; Timlin, Dennis; Fleisher, David

Submitted to: International Congress on Modeling and Simulation Proceedings
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/5/2007
Publication Date: 12/10/2007
Citation: Reddy, V., Yang, Y., Reddy, K., Timlin, D.J., Fleisher, D.H. 2007. Cotton Modeling for Climate Change, On-farm Decision Support, and Policy Decisions. International Congress on Modeling and Simulation Proceedings. 1:67-72.

Interpretive Summary: The Cotton Simulation model GOSSYM is designed to simulate cotton growth, development, and final yield. The model has been in use as an on-farm decision-aid for cotton growers and consultants for over 25 years resulting in increased profits to cotton producers. This paper discusses various applications of the cotton model in research management, plant breeding, yield forecasting, farm management, cotton disease, and weed control strategies. This paper also discusses the use of the cotton simulation model GOSSYM to simulate the impact of various climatic variables associated with global climate change on cotton production and outlines alternate management and strategic plans to be used to ameliorate the adverse impacts of future climate change conditions on cotton production. This research is useful for cotton scientists, policy makers, and cotton producers.

Technical Abstract: Crop simulation models are valuable tools that scientists can use in testing hypothesis. Models also are used to identify the areas where knowledge is lacking, indicating the needs for future research activities. In addition, models are being used as decision support systems at the farm level to optimize resource management. The cotton simulation model, GOSSYM, is a mechanistic process level model which simulates cotton growth, development, and yield and has been used for over 20 years as on-farm decision support tool by cotton growers and consultants resulting in increased profits to cotton producers. By optimizing the inputs such as chemical fertilizers, insecticides, plant growth regulators, and harvest-aid chemicals, the model not only contributes to increased yields but also helps to decrease environmental pollution. The use and application of the model in research management, plant breeding, yield forcasting, farm management, and insect, disease, and weed control will be presented. Also, we will discuss the impacts of projected climate changes on cotton production and suggest alternate management and strategic plans to be used in the future higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warmer temperature.