A Decision Support System For Assisting With Stocking Rate Decisions During And Following Drought

Authors: WILES, LORI; DUNN, GALE; NORMAN, ARNOLD - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE (NRCS, USDA); PRINTZ, JEFF - NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE (NRCS, USDA)

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/27/2008
Publication Date: 2/8/2009
Citation: Wiles, L., Dunn, G.H., Norman, A., Printz, J. 2009. A Decision Support System For Assisting With Stocking Rate Decisions During And Following Drought. Meeting Abstract.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Ranchers and range managers in the West are at the mercy of climatic conditions that determine the amount of annual forge available on rangeland. Typically, stocking or de-stocking decisions need to be made before the final forage production level is known. Erroneous stocking rate decisions can have dire economic and environmental consequences. Ranchers and range managers need a decision support tool that will provide a reasonably accurate prediction of forage growth potential as early in the coming growing/grazing season as possible. We developed a decision support system (DSS) based on findings of our research of climatic predictor variables for forage growth. In that research we found that for the three study locations, Streeter, ND, Miles City, MT, and Cheyenne, WY, spring precipitation during key months was more closely correlated with peak standing crop (PSC) than annual or growing season precipitation. We also found that precipitation during a single spring month had higher correlation than other months. Using this information we developed a decision support tool that estimates future forage growth potential with reasonable accuracy. We will demonstrate how well the DSS performed in estimating forage production for both wet and dry years. Key words: rangeland, forage, precipitation, decision support tool