Author
MILLA, K. - Florida A & M University | |
KAIRO, M.T.K. - Florida A & M University | |
Reitz, Stuart | |
LORENZO, A.B. - Florida A & M University |
Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only Publication Acceptance Date: 11/19/2010 Publication Date: N/A Citation: N/A Interpretive Summary: The chilli thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis) is a relatively new pest species in Florida. Nonetheless, interest in chilli thrips continues to grow due to the ease of spread in field and ornamental crops, and its potential negative impacts on yield and economic returns. To better understand how this invasive pest is likely to spread in the United States, scientists with the USDA-ARS Center for Medical, Agricultural and Veterinary Entomology Gainesville, Florida, and Florida A&M University combined climate modeling and geographical information systems methodologies, The highest reported detections of the chilli thrips in the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) coincide with a high density of nursery and garden centers as well as with large urban areas and high population density. In this study, climate-based risk maps were generated using the North Carolina State University-APHIS Plant Pest Forecast (NAPPFAST) modeling system to predict the possible extent of this pest’s distribution. NAPPFAST links climate and historical weather data with biological development models for a specified pest. Climate risk maps generated were based on the generic degree day and insect degree day templates in NAPPFAST and developmental requirements of 9.70C as the base developmental temperature and 281 accumulated degree days from oviposition to oviposition. The plant host data in the risk map were obtained from county acreage data published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). Results suggest the occurrences of transportation, urban development, production nurseries and garden centers are positively correlated with population distributions of chilli thrips. Consequently, results show the highest risk occurring in southwest Florida, with lower risks occurring in north Florida than central Panhandle region. The study also shows NAPPFAST’s potential for regional risk analysis. Finally, this study demonstrates that a well-chosen allocation of resources to preliminary studies such as this one could possibly have a larger ultimate payoff in prevention of later economic losses. Technical Abstract: The chilli thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis) is a relatively new pest species in Florida. Nonetheless, interest in chilli thrips continues to grow due to the ease of spread in field and ornamental crops, and its potential negative impacts on yield and economic returns. The highest reported detections in the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) coincided with a high density of nursery and garden centers as well as with large urban areas and high population density. In this study, climate-based risk maps were generated using the North Carolina State University-APHIS Plant Pest Forecast (NAPPFAST) modeling system to predict the possible extent of this pest’s distribution. NAPPFAST links climate and historical weather data with biological development models for a specified pest. Climate risk maps generated were based on the generic degree day and insect degree day templates in NAPPFAST and developmental requirements of 9.70C as the base developmental temperature and 281 accumulated degree days from oviposition to oviposition. The plant host data in the risk map were obtained from county acreage data published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). Results suggest the occurrences of transportation, urban development, production nurseries and garden centers are positively correlated with population distributions of chilli thrips. Consequently, results show the highest risk occurring in southwest Florida, with lower risks occurring in north Florida than central Panhandle region. The study also shows NAPPFAST’s potential for regional risk analysis. Finally, this study demonstrates that a well-chosen allocation of resources to preliminary studies such as this one could possibly have a larger ultimate payoff in prevention of later economic losses. |