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Title: Report on the project future climate of the Goodwater Creek experimental watershed, MO

Author
item Garbrecht, Jurgen
item Sadler, Edward
item Baffaut, Claire
item Busteed, Phillip

Submitted to: Grazinglands Research Laboratory Miscellaneous Publication
Publication Type: Research Notes
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/30/2013
Publication Date: 6/30/2013
Citation: Garbrecht, J.D., Sadler, E.J., Baffaut, C., Busteed, P.R. 2013. Report on the project future climate of the Goodwater Creek experimental watershed, MO. Grazinglands Research Laboratory Miscellaneous Publication. Available: http://iapreview.ars.usda.gov/main/site_main.htm?modecode=62-18-05-20.

Interpretive Summary: This report is one of several reports that provide technical information on projected climate change at selected ARS experimental watersheds across the continental United States and for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The climate change information in this report is for the USDA, ARS Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed, Missouri, and serves as the basis for making inferences about potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology, natural resources, and agricultural productivity of the region represented by the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. Based on historical (observed) climate data and climate projections, annual precipitation of the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed was not expected to change much over the 21st century for the high, middle, and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios studied. Most trends in projected monthly precipitation were not statistically significant. Annual air temperature of the watershed was expected to increase for the three emission scenarios. Average trend of annual air temperature over the 2011-2100 time period was 0.20, 0.34, and 0.49 [oC/dc] for the low, middle, and high emission scenarios, respectively. All trends of projected monthly temperature for time periods 2011-2070 and 2011-2100 were statistically significant. Projected air temperature increases were higher during the warm months of the year (May through October) than during the cool months of the year (November through April). Overall, climate change in east-central Missouri is anticipated to be primarily in the form of a rise in air temperature for all calendar months with minimal change in annual precipitation.

Technical Abstract: This report is one of several reports that provide technical information on projected climate change at selected ARS experimental watersheds across the continental United States and for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The report is an attachment to the main report of the multi-location project titled “Estimating impacts of projected climate change on regional water availability and quality, across diverse physiographic regions in the United States, and their associated implications for conservation needs and agricultural productivity”. The projected climate change information in this report is for the USDA, ARS Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed, Missouri, and serves as the basis for making inferences about potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology, natural resources, and agricultural productivity of the region represented by the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. Based on historical (observed) climate data and climate projections, annual precipitation of the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed was not expected to change much over the 21st century for the high, middle, and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios studied. Most trends in projected monthly precipitation were not statistically significant. With regard to the precipitation distribution within a year, precipitation had a tendency to increase slightly from March through May. All three emission scenarios displayed a statistically significant 90-year (2011-2100) positive (i.e. wet) seasonal trend (March through May), but only the high and low emission scenarios had a corresponding mean seasonal precipitation that was statistically different from that of the 1981-2010 seasonal reference time period. Annual air temperature of the watershed was expected to increase for the three emission scenarios. Average trend of annual air temperature over the 2011-2100 time period was 0.20, 0.34, and 0.49 [oC/dc] for the low, middle, and high emission scenarios, respectively. All trends of projected monthly temperature for time periods 2011-2070 and 2011-2100 were statistically significant. The trend for projected monthly air temperature ranged from 0.13 to 0.31 [oC/dc], from 0.22 to 0.46 [oC/dc], and from 0.37 to 0.67 [oC/dc] for the low, middle and high emission scenarios, respectively. Projected air temperature increases were higher during May through October (warm months of the year) than during the other months (cool months of the year). Overall, climate change in east-central Missouri is anticipated to be primarily in the form of a rise in air temperature for all calendar months with minimal change in annual precipitation. There was a possibility that precipitation in March through May could increase over the next 90 years.