Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Authors: RUSSELL, COLIN - University Of Cambridge; KASSON, PETER - University Of Virginia; DONIS, RUBEN - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; RILEY, STEVEN - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); DUNBAR, JOHN - Los Alamos National Research Laboratory; RAMBAUT, ANDREW - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); ASHER, JASON - US Department Of Health And Human Services (HHS); BURKE, STEPHEN - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; DAVIS, C. TODD - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; GARTEN, REBECCA - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; GNANAKARAN, S - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); HAY, SIMON - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); HERFST, SANDER - Erasmus Medical Center; LEWIS, NICOLA - University Of Cambridge; LLOYD-SMITH, JAMES - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); MACKEN, CATHERINE - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); MAURER-STROH, SEBASTIAN - Nanyang Technological University; NEUHAUS, ELIZABETH - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; PARRISH, COLIN - Cornell University; PEPIN, KIM - US Department Of Agriculture (USDA); SHEPARD, SAM - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; SMITH, DAVID - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); Suarez, David; TROCK, SUSAN - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; WIDDOWSON, MARC-ALAIN - Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) - United States; GEORGE, DYLAN - National Institutes Of Health (NIH); LIPSITCH, MARC - Harvard University; BLOOM, JESSE - Seattle University

Submitted to: eLife
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/1/2014
Publication Date: 10/16/2014
Publication URL: https://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/59847
Citation: Russell, C.A., Kasson, P.M., Donis, R.O., Riley, S., Dunbar, J., Rambaut, A., Asher, J., Burke, S., Davis, C., Garten, R.J., Gnanakaran, S., Hay, S.I., Herfst, S., Lewis, N.S., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Macken, C.A., Maurer-Stroh, S., Neuhaus, E., Parrish, C.R., Pepin, K.M., Shepard, S., Smith, D.L., Suarez, D.L., Trock, S.C., Widdowson, M., George, D., Lipsitch, M., Bloom, J.D. 2014. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment. eLife. doi: 10.7554/eLife.03883.

Interpretive Summary: Influenza viruses can infect a wide range of animals from pigs, horses, dogs, chickens, and wild birds. Although all of these viruses are classified as influenza viruses, many variants exist that may or may not infect and cause disease in humans. The concern is that an animal virus may begin infecting humans resulting in a serious and widespread disease outbreak. This paper describes our current knowledge in how to predict which animal viruses present the greatest threat of introduction and serious disease in humans. As our knowledge increases about influenza, we will be able to increase our predictive ability. In addition detection of what influenza viruses are circulating in animals is also important.

Technical Abstract: Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions tremendously difficult. Integration of experimental work, computational tool development and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to provide a step-change in the level of insight obtained from current scientific and public health investments.