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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Urbana, Illinois » Global Change and Photosynthesis Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #318436
Title: The grain drain. Ozone effects on historical maize and soybean yields

Author
item MCGRATH, J - University Of Illinois
item BETZELBERGER, A - University Of Cape Town
item WANG, S - University Of Illinois
item SHOOK, E - University Of Illinois
item ZHU, X-G - Chinese Academy Of Sciences
item LONG, S - University Of Illinois
item Ainsworth, Elizabeth - Lisa

Submitted to: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/1/2015
Publication Date: 12/1/2015
Citation: McGrath, J.M., Betzelberger, A.M., Wang, S., Shook, E., Zhu, X., Long, S.P., Ainsworth, E.A. 2015. The grain drain. Ozone effects on historical maize and soybean yields. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 112:14390-14395.

Interpretive Summary: Although many experimental studies have demonstrated that elevated concentrations of the air pollutant, ozone, decrease crop yields, there have been very few efforts to link yields in farmer's fields to growing season ozone exposure. This analysis used 28 years of historical ozone data in conjunction with county-level yield data and weather data to build statistical models of the relationship between corn and soybean yield and exposure to air pollution. The results showed that counter to expectation, maize was more sensitive to ozone than soybean, and that the damaging effects of ozone were greatest during drier growing seasons. From 1980 to 2008, production of soybean and corn were reduced by ~5% and 10%. This work provides further evidence for the damaging effects of ozone on agriculture, and suggests that improved emission controls or the development of tolerant germplasm are needed to overcome these losses.

Technical Abstract: Numerous controlled experiments find that elevated ground-level ozone concentrations ([O3]) damage crops and reduce yield. There have been no estimates of the actual field yield losses in the USA from [O3], even though such estimates would be valuable for projections of future food production and for cost-benefit analyses of reducing ground-level [O3]. Regression analysis of historical yield, climate and [O3] data for the USA were used to determine the loss of production due to O3 for maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) in the USA from 1980 to 2008, showing that over that period, production of soybean and maize were reduced by roughly 5% and 10%, respectively, costing approximately $9 billion annually. Contrary to expectations, maize, thought to be protected from O3, is at least as sensitive as soybean to O3 damage. Overcoming this loss with improved emission controls or more tolerant germplasm could substantially increase world food and feed supply at a time when a global yield jump is urgently needed.