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Title: Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation

Author
item Ma, Liwang
item Ahuja, Lajpat
item ISLAM, A - Indian Council Of Agricultural Research (ICAR)
item Trout, Thomas
item Anapalli, Saseendran
item Malone, Robert - Rob

Submitted to: Agricultural Water Management
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/6/2016
Publication Date: 11/4/2016
Citation: Ma, L., Ahuja, L.R., Islam, A., Trout, T.J., Anapalli, S.S., Malone, R.W. 2016. Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation. Agricultural Water Management. 180:88-98.

Interpretive Summary: The agricultural community is evaluating the possible effects of climate change on crop production and developing strategies to adapt to this change. Using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM), we demonstrated that projected climate change decreased maize yield by 21% and biomass by 7% during the 2080s (2070-2092) under full irrigation. Under deficit irrigation, the corresponding reduction was 14% and 2%. Thus, climate change affected full irrigation treatments more than deficit irrigation. A maize variety from southern Colorado that was calibrated with RZWQM2 did not show yield decrease under future weather conditions, but it simulated much lower yield under current weather condition, especially under full irrigation. We identified a variety from a crop database (GL 482), which produced similar yield under current weather condition and increased yield by 4% at full irrigation during 2080s. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling for several cultivar traits, we also identified theoretical cultivars with longer maturity date and higher grain filling rate, which may be suitable for central Great Plains under the warming climate. These identified traits can guide plant breeders in developing cultivars for the future.

Technical Abstract: As climate change becomes inevitable, the agricultural community is concerned about its possible effects on crop production and developing strategies to adapt to this change. In this study, the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) was calibrated with four years of maize data from central Colorado under full to limited irrigation conditions and was then used to simulate climate change effects on maize production with current management practices and cultivar traits. Results showed that projected climate change decreased maize yield by 21% and biomass by 7% during the 2080s (2070-2092) under full irrigation. Under deficit irrigation, the corresponding reduction was 14% and 2%. Thus, climate change affected full irrigation treatments more than deficit irrigation. The model was further used to simulate maize production with longer maturity duration cultivars from southern Colorado and from the DSSAT database. A maize variety from the southern Colorado that was calibrated with RZWQM2 did not show yield decrease under future weather conditions, but it simulated much lower yield under current weather condition, especially under full irrigation. A variety in the DSSAT crop database (GL 482) produced similar yield under current weather condition and increased yield by 4% at full irrigation during 2080s. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling for several cultivar traits, we also identified theoretical cultivars with longer maturity date and higher grain filling rate, which may be suitable for central Great Plains under the warming climate. These identified traits can guide plant breeders in developing cultivars for the future.