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Title: Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods

Author
item LIU, BING - Nanjing Tech University
item ASSENG, SENTHOLD - University Of Florida
item MULLER, CHRISTOPH - Potsdam Institute
item EWERT, FRANT - University Of Bonn
item ELLIOTT, JOSHUA - Columbia University - New York
item LOBELL, DAVID - Stanford University
item MARTE, PIERRE - Inland Northwest Research Alliance, Inra
item RUANE, ALEX - Columbia University - New York
item WALLACH, DANIEL - Inland Northwest Research Alliance, Inra
item JONES, JAMES - University Of Florida
item ROSENZWEIG, CYNTHIA - Columbia University - New York
item AGGARWAL, PRAMOD - International Water Management Institute
item ALDERMAN, PHILLIP - International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
item ANOTHAI, JAKARAT - Prince Of Songkla University
item BASSO, BRUNO - Michigan State University
item BIERNATH, CHRISTIAN - German Research Center For Environmental Health
item CAMMARANO, DAVIDE - The James Hutton Institute
item CHALLINOR, ANDY - University Of Leeds
item DERYNG, DELPHINE - University Of East Anglia
item DE SANCTIS, GIACOMO - European Commission-Joint Research Centre (JRC)
item DOLTRA, JORDI - Center For Agricultural Research And Training, Cantabria Government (CIFA)
item FERERES, ELIAS - Universidad De Cordoba
item FOLBERTH, CHRISTIAN - Swiss Federal Institute Of Technology Zurich
item GARCIA-VILA, MARGARITA - International Center For Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
item GAYLER, SEBASTIAN - University Of Tubingen
item HOOGENBOOM, GERRIT - Washington State University
item HUNT, L.A. - University Of Guelph
item IZAURRALDE, ROBERTO - University Of Maryland
item JABLOUN, MOHAMED - Aarhus University
item JONES, CURTIS - University Of Maryland
item KERSEBAUM, KURT - Leibniz Institute
item Kimball, Bruce
item KOEHLER, ANN-KRISTIN - University Of Leeds
item KUMAR, SOORA NARESH - Indian Agricultural Research Institute
item NENDEL, CLAAS - Leibniz Institute
item O'LEARY, GARY - Department Of Environment And Primary Industries
item OLESEN, JORGEN - Aarhus University
item OTTMAN, MICHAEL - University Of Arizona
item PALOSUO, TARU - Mtt Agrifood Research Finland
item PRASAD, P.V. VARA - Kansas State University
item PRIESACK, ECKART - German Research Center For Environmental Health
item PUGH, THOMAS - Karlsruhe Institute Of Technology
item REYNOLDS, MATTHEW - International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT)
item REZAEI, EHSAN - University Of Bonn
item ROTTER, REIMUND - Mtt Agrifood Research Finland
item SCHMID, ERWIN - University Of Natural Resources & Applied Life Sciences - Austria
item SEMENOV, MIKHAIL - Rothamsted Research
item SHCHERBAK, IURII - Michigan State University
item STEHFEST, ELKE - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
item STOCKLE, CLAUDIO - Washington State University
item STRATONOVITCH, PIERRE - Rothamsted Research
item STRECK, THILO - University Of Hohenheim
item SUPIT, IWAN - Wageningen University
item TAO, FULU - Chinese Academy Of Sciences
item THORBURN, PETER - Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
item WAHA, KATHARINA - Potsdam Institute
item Wall, Gerard - Gary
item WANG, ENLI - Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
item White, Jeffrey
item WOLF, JOOST - Wageningen University
item ZHAO, ZHANG - China Agricultural University
item ZHU, YAN - Nanjing Agricultural University

Submitted to: Nature Climate Change
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/2/2016
Publication Date: 10/20/2016
Publication URL: http://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/63143
Citation: Liu, B., Asseng, S., Muller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Marte, P., Ruane, A.C., Wallach, D., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Alderman, P.D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L., Izaurralde, R.C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C.D., Kersebaum, K.C., Kimball, B.A., Koehler, A., Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Ottman, M.J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P., Priesack, E., Pugh, T.A., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E., Rotter, R.P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stockle, C.O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G.W., Wang, E., White, J.W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. 2016. Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change. 6:1130-1138.

Interpretive Summary: As growing season temperatures rise due to global warming, the yields of wheat (the foremost food and feed crop) are likely to be affected. To determine the probable magnitude on future world wheat production, three independent methods of estimation were utilized. Previously, however, the high temperature aspects of an ensemble of physiological-process-based wheat growth models had been tested using field data obtained over a very wide range of temperatures in Arizona by ARS researchers and a University of Arizona collaborator at Maricopa, Arizona, as well as on some other datasets from other parts of the world. One method of estimation used the model ensemble on a grid over major wheat producing areas. A second used the ensemble at points where good weather and soils data were available and then assigned representative areas to each point. The third method used county-based historical wheat yield and weather data in a statistical model. Projected temperature impacts from the three methods were similar for major wheat producing areas, which gives credence to all three methods. Yields are projected to decrease 4.5% to 6.0% per 1.0°C rise in global temperature. This research will benefit all consumers of food and fiber.

Technical Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global wheat production has recently been assessed with different methods, scaling and aggregation approaches. Here we show that grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and statistical regressions produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1°C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline by between 4.1% and 6.0%, a relatively narrow range considering the different methods used. Projected temperature impacts from different methods were very similar for major wheat producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. At the location scale, the point-based method simulated higher responses to temperature than the grid-based method. Specifically, the point-based method tended to predict more yield loss with increasing temperature at cooler locations and less yield loss at warmer locations. However, both point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in predicting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield reductions with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. Use of multi-methods model ensembles should significantly improves the accuracy of estimates of climate impacts on global food security.