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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Bowling Green, Kentucky » Food Animal Environmental Systems Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #329936
Title: Incorporating uncertainty estimates into the KY P index

Author
item Bolster, Carl
item LEE, BRAD - University Of Kentucky
item OSMOND, DEANNA - North Carolina State University

Submitted to: Soil Science Society of America Annual Meeting
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/12/2016
Publication Date: 11/9/2016
Citation: Bolster, C.H., Lee, B., Osmond, D. 2016. Incorporating uncertainty estimates into the KY P index. Soil Science Society of America Annual Meeting. 1.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The phosphorous (P) index is an important tool for identifying and evaluating conservation practices aimed at reducing P losses from agricultural fields. There exists, however, an inherent amount of uncertainty in its prediction of P loss risk, though this is often ignored by P index developers and users. In this study, we conducted an uncertainty analysis with the Kentucky phosphorus index. We present and discuss the different sources of error associated with P indices and discuss potential approaches for estimating these uncertainties and including them in applications of the P index. Results from this study highlight the importance of including reasonable estimates of prediction uncertainties when using P indices to predict the risk of P loss from agricultural fields.