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ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #334286
Title: Short-term forecasting tools for agricultural nutrient management

Author
item EASTON, ZACHARY - Virginia Polytechnic Institution & State University
item Kleinman, Peter
item Buda, Anthony
item GOERING, DUSTIN - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item EMBERSTON, NICHOLE - Collaborator
item REED, SEANN - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
item DROHAN, PATRICK - Pennsylvania State University
item WALTER, MICHAEL - Cornell University
item GUINAN, PAT - University Of Missouri
item LORY, JOHN - University Of Missouri
item SOMMERLOT, ANDREW - Virginia Polytechnic Institution & State University
item SHARPLEY, ANDREW - University Of Arkansas

Submitted to: Journal of Environmental Quality
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/22/2017
Publication Date: 4/13/2017
Citation: Easton, Z.M., Kleinman, P.J., Buda, A.R., Goering, D., Emberston, N., Reed, S., Drohan, P.J., Walter, M.T., Guinan, P., Lory, J.A., Sommerlot, A.R., Sharpley, A.N. 2017. Short-term forecasting tools for agricultural nutrient management. Journal of Environmental Quality. doi: 10.2134/jeq2016.09.0377.

Interpretive Summary: Advances in high weather forecasting and hydrologic modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real time information that can assist farmers with managing when and where to apply fertilizers and manure. Scientists from USDA-ARS’s University Park, PA location helped to lead a national project summarizing the state-of-the-science of short-term forecasting tools for nutrient management planning. Their findings point to many similarities between the tools that currently exist, as well as opportunities for advancing the development of these application and improving their adoption.

Technical Abstract: The advent of real time/short term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high performance computing and hydrologic/climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the US: 1) Wisconsin’s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System; 2) Washington’s Application Risk Management System; 3) Pennsylvania’s Fertilizer Forecaster; 4) Virginia’s Saturated Area Forecast Model; 5) New York’s Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool; 6) Missouri’s Design Storm Notification System. While these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (ranging from 24-120 hrs into the future) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast Models. While this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, limits to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs field level), data requirements and communication structure.