Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate

Authors: Derner, Justin; BRISKE, DAVID - Texas A&M University; REEVES, MATTHEW - Us Forest Service (FS); Brown-Brandl, Tami; MEEHAN, MIRANDA - North Dakota State University; Blumenthal, Dana; TRAVIS, WILLIAM - University Of Colorado; Augustine, David; Wilmer, Hailey; SCASTA, J. DEREK - University Of Wyoming

Submitted to: Climatic Change
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/7/2017
Publication Date: 7/27/2017
Citation: Derner, J.D., Briske, D., Reeves, M., Brown-Brandl, T.M., Meehan, M., Blumenthal, D.M., Travis, W., Augustine, D.J., Wilmer, H.N., Scasta, J. 2017. Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6

Interpretive Summary: The states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska Northern Great Plains are largely rural areas that provide important agricultural and ecological services for the US. Collectively, these states comprise the Northern Great Plains which contains ¼ of the Nation’s beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US – the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. Projected climatic changes (rising atmospheric CO2, warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events) may affect livestock production both directly by impacting animals, and indirectly by altering forage quality and quantity, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. Although agricultural managers in the Northern Great Plains have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with weather/climatic and economic variability already, the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes will require even greater adaptive capacity of individual land managers to maintain viable production systems. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making that integrates biophysical, social and economic components. Proactive learning opportunities that integrate experimental and managerial knowledge—such as lessons learned from early adopters—can help enhance decision-making. Decision-making at the operation/enterprise level can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity while being sensitive to multiple production and conservation goals.

Technical Abstract: The Northern Great Plains (NGP) region of the United States – which comprises Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska – is a largely rural area that provides important agricultural and ecological services, including biological diversity. The region contains 25% of the Nation’s beef cattle and approximately one-third of the confined beef cattle, as well as the largest remaining native prairie in the US – the Northern Mixedgrass Prairie. With rising atmospheric CO2, the NGP is projected to experience warmer and longer growing seasons, greater climatic variability, and more extreme events (e.g., increased occurrence of large precipitation events). These climatic changes may affect livestock production both directly via physiological impacts on animals, and indirectly via modifications to forage, invasion of undesirable plants, and increased exposure to parasites. This raises concerns about the vulnerability of grazing livestock operations and confined livestock operations to projected changes in mid (2050) and late (2085) 21st century climate. Our objectives are to: 1) describe the NGP’s exposure to temperature and precipitation trends, inter-annual variability, and extreme events; 2) evaluate the sensitivity of beef cattle production to direct and indirect effects imposed by these projected climatic changes; and 3) provide a typology of adaptive capacity to minimize adverse consequences of projected changes and maximize beneficial consequences. Agricultural managers have developed considerable adaptive capacity to contend with environmental and economic variability. However, projected climatic changes, especially the increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, will require even greater adaptive capacity to maintain viable production systems. The NGP’s vulnerability to projected climatic changes will be determined not only by ecological responses, but also by the adaptive capacity of individual managers. Adaptive capacity in the NGP will differ from other regions, in part because projections suggest some opportunities for increased livestock production. Adaptations in both grazing and confined beef cattle systems will require enhanced decision-making that integrates biophysical, social and economic components. Proactive learning opportunities that integrate experimental and experiential knowledge—such as lessons learned from early adopters—can help enhance decision-making. After all, many adaptations have already been implemented by a subset of producers in this region, providing opportunities for assessment, further development, and adoption. Context-specific decision-making for operations can also be enhanced through science-management partnerships, which aim to build adaptive capacity while being sensitive to multiple production and conservation/environmental goals.