Projected climate and agronomic implications for corn production in the Northeastern United States

Authors: PRASAD, RISHI - Pennsylvania State University; Gunn, Kpoti; Rotz, Clarence - Al; KARSTEN, HEATHER - Pennsylvania State University; ROTH, GREG - Pennsylvania State University; Buda, Anthony; STONER, ANNE - Texas Tech University

Submitted to: Global Change Biology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/22/2018
Publication Date: 6/11/2018
Citation: Prasad, R., Gunn, K.M., Rotz, C.A., Karsten, H., Roth, G., Buda, A.R., Stoner, A. 2018. Projected climate and agronomic implications for corn production in the Northeastern United States. Global Change Biology. 13(6):e0198623. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198623.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198623

Interpretive Summary: Corn is an important crop in American agriculture, offering many possibilities for feeding and fueling a growing world population. The northeastern U.S. is the fastest warming region in the contiguous U.S., so corn production in this region may suffer more from the impacts of climate change than other regions. We examined the potential local impacts of a changing climate on corn production throughout this century at three locations across the Northeast under two greenhouse gas emission trajectories of business-as-usual or a high emission scenario and a reduced or low emission scenario. Location specific management changes are required to avoid yield reductions from warmer temperatures and reduced soil moisture availability during critical stages of crop growth and development. We conclude that a better understanding of climate extremes at local levels is required to determine the best management strategies to adapt to a changing climate.

Technical Abstract: Corn has been a pillar in American agriculture for decades and continues to receive much attention from the scientific community regarding its potential to continue meeting the food, feed and fuel needs of a growing human population in a changing climate. By midcentury, global temperature increase is expected to exceed 2°C where local effects on heat, cold and precipitation extremes will vary spatially. The Northeast United States is a major dairy producer, corn consumer, and cited to be the fastest warming region in the contiguous U.S. It is important to understand how the key agronomic climate variables affect corn growth and development so that adaptation strategies can be tailored to adopt to a changing climate at local levels. Here we analyzed potential local effects of climate change on corn growth and development at three major dairy locations in the Northeast (Syracuse, New York; State College, Pennsylvania and Landisville, Pennsylvania) using downscaled projected climate data (2000-2100) from nine global climate models (GCMs) under two emission pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Our analysis indicates that corn near the end of the 21st century will potentially experience fewer spring and fall freezes, faster rate of growing degree day (GDD) accumulation with a reduction in time required to reach maturity, greater frequencies of daily high temperature (=35°C) during key growth stages such as silking-anthesis and greater moisture deficit during reproductive (R1-R6) stages. These agronomic anomalies differ between the three locations, illustrating varying impacts of climate change on corn in the more northern regions vs. the southern regions of the Northeast. Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest moisture deficit stages of corn (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet the local needs.