Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural-human model

Authors: AISTRUP, JOSEPH - Auburn University; BULATEWICZ, TOM - Kansas State University; KULCSAR, LASZLO - Pennsylvania State University; PETERSON, JEFFREY - University Of Minnesota; WELCH, STEPHEN - Kansas State University; STEWARD, DAVID - Kansas State University

Submitted to: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/3/2017
Publication Date: 12/7/2017
Citation: Aistrup, J.A., Bulatewicz, T., Kulcsar, L.J., Peterson, J.M., Welch, S., Steward, D.R. 2017. Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural-human model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 21(12):6167-6183.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6167-2017

Interpretive Summary: As water from the Ogallala Aquifer decreases, water policy makers need information on the impact of future water policies on socio-economic impacts. However, the tools for developing such information to guide water policy formulation is still under development. Scientists from Kansas State University, Pennsylvania State University, Auburn University and University of Minnesota in the ARS led Ogallala Aquifer Program studied the impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 in southwestern Kansas using a model that simulates a coupled natural–human system. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads an initial expansion in irrigation. This study supports the use of a couple natural-human model to provide policy information to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

Technical Abstract: The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural–human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.