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Title: Heat units-based potential yield assessment for cotton production in Uzbekistan

Author
item MONTANARO, GIANNI - International Center For Agricultural Research(ICARDA)
item NANGIA, VINAY - International Center For Agricultural Research(ICARDA)
item Gowda, Prasanna
item MUKHAMEDIANOV, SHUKHRAT - Non ARS Employee
item MUKHAMEDIANOV, AZAMAT - Non ARS Employee
item HADDAD, MIRA - International Center For Agricultural Research(ICARDA)
item YULDASHEV, TULKUN - International Water Management Institute
item WU, WEICHENG - East China University Of Science And Technology
item GLAZIRINA, MARIYA - International Center For Agricultural Research(ICARDA)

Submitted to: International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/22/2019
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Cotton is the major industrial, irrigated crop grown under state control in Uzbekistan. However, Cotton production in Uzbekistan has declined in recent years due to both flawed natural resource management policies and environmental factors. While efforts are being made to address these issues, a baseline yield (e.g. potential cotton yield) is needed to track progress. This study estimated potential cotton yield (maximum yield given no production constraints) a heat unit based method. Climatic data from 21 selected weather stations across cotton-growing areas of Uzbekistan was used for this purpose. Yield gap analysis (relative difference between long-term average PCY and actual yields) confirmed that Uzbekistan cotton production is below potential, while the spatial distribution of yield gaps outlined where efforts should be targeted.

Technical Abstract: Cotton yields in Uzbekistan are significantly lower than those in similar agro-climatic regions, necessitating the estimation of baseline yield (e.g. potential cotton yield, PCY) to track progress of efforts to increase production. Our study estimated PCY (maximum yield given no production constraints) using a heat unit (HU)-based method for a 30-year (1984-2013) period. Long-term average total heat units (THU) and PCY, as well as PCY at three different exceedance probabilities (P=0.99, P=0.80, and P=0.75), were calculated for 21 selected weather stations across cotton-growing areas of Uzbekistan. After confirmation that current planting date (April 15) is optimal, a comparison of THU with the accepted cotton production cutoff threshold (1444oC) suggested that areas with lower elevations and latitudes were more appropriate. Yield gap analysis (relative difference between long-term average PCY and actual yields) confirmed that Uzbekistan cotton production is below potential, while the spatial distribution of yield gaps outlined where efforts should be targeted. A comparison between state-set yield targets and PCY values, taking into account climatic variability (i.e. at various exceedance probabilities), showed that all areas except Jaslyk, Nurata, and Samarkand had safe, appropriate targets. These results present a starting-point for strategic future actions to improve Uzbekistan cotton production.