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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Beltsville, Maryland (BHNRC) » Beltsville Human Nutrition Research Center » Diet, Genomics and Immunology Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #355873
Title: An approach to combine elevated atmospheric CO2 effects on protein, iron and zinc availability with projected climate change impacts on global diets

Author
item BEACH, ROBERT - Rti International, Usa
item SULSER, TIMOTHY - International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI)
item CRIMMINS, ALLISON - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item CENACCHI, NICOLA - International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI)
item COLE, JEFFERSON - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item Fukagawa, Naomi
item MASON-D'CROZ, DANIEL - Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
item MYERS, SAMUEL - Harvard University
item SAROFIM, MARCUS - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
item SMITH, MATTHEW - Harvard University
item Ziska, Lewis

Submitted to: Lancet
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/30/2019
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition through impacts on both agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We used a global economic model of the agricultural sector to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. Estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities were used to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption. The resulting food supply was combined with estimates of changes in nutrient content from elevated CO2 concentrations to assess changes in nutrient availability relative to the reference (2050 with no climate change). The data suggest that many countries currently experiencing high levels of nutrient deficiency are also disproportionately affected in the future. While technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilization are projected to increase global availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050 relative to 2010, these increases are dampened by negative effects of climate change impacts on productivity and change in crop nutrient content. Therefore, these results suggest that the net effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations will slow progress in achieving reductions in global nutrient deficiencies.

Technical Abstract: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition through impacts on both agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We used a global economic model of the agricultural sector to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. Estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities were used to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption. The resulting food supply was combined with estimates of changes in nutrient content from elevated CO2 concentrations to assess changes in nutrient availability relative to the reference (2050 with no climate change). Results indicate that global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc is projected to increase by 18% to 20% between 2010 and 2050. However, projected effects of elevated CO2 on protein, iron, and zinc in crops decrease global availability of these nutrients by mid-century, enacting a penalty on expected increases in availability of -3·1%, -3·0%, and -2·4%, respectively. Many countries currently experiencing high levels of nutrient deficiency are also disproportionately affected in the future. Nutrient availability from wheat is projected to decline by 7·8% to 9·6%. While technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilization are projected to increase global availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050 relative to 2010, these increases are dampened by negative effects of climate change impacts on productivity and change in crop nutrient content. Our results suggest that the net effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations will slow progress in achieving reductions in global nutrient deficiencies.