Niche dynamics and potential distribution of Butomus umbellatus under current and future climate scenarios in North America

Authors: BANERJEE, ACHYUT - Sun Yat-Sen University; HARMS, NATHAN - Us Army Corp Of Engineers (USACE); MUKHERJEE, ABHISHEK - Indian Statistical Institute; Gaskin, John

Submitted to: Hydrobiologia
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/11/2020
Publication Date: 2/24/2020
Citation: Banerjee, A.K., Harms, N.E., Mukherjee, A., Gaskin, J.F. 2020. Niche dynamics and potential distribution of Butomus umbellatus under current and future climate scenarios in North America. Hydrobiologia. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-020-04205-1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-020-04205-1

Interpretive Summary: We found that although the current distribution of invasive flowering rush in the US and Canada is large, there is potential for it to be much larger, both now and in the future. An increase by 20% of suitable area in Canada between historical and future scenarios, and the expansion of suitable climate to include the majority (>90%) of Alaska should be cause for concern and help provide further justification for the need to develop more rapid-response control options. Although we provide an assessment of climatic similarity between North American and foreign locations in order to support decision making related to biological control, factors related to spread of flowering rush should be researched to better refine predictions of establishment risk.

Technical Abstract: We found that although the current distribution of invasive flowering rush in the US and Canada is large, there is potential for it to be much larger, both now and in the future. An increase by 20% of suitable area in Canada between historical and future scenarios, and the expansion of suitable climate to include the majority (>90%) of Alaska should be cause for concern and help provide further justification for the need to develop more rapid-response control options. Although present in the US and Canada for over 100 years, the distribution of flowering rush has not yet expanded south from the northern tier of the US, possibly limited by biotic interactions (i.e., disease, herbivory), limited propagule pressure, genetic differences between plants in the introduced and native ranges (i.e., post-introduction genetic drift or adaptation), or genetic bottlenecks experienced during introduction that led to the distribution pattern observed in North America. Although we provide an assessment of climatic similarity between North American and foreign locations in order to support decision making related to biological control, factors related to spread of flowering rush should be researched to better refine predictions of establishment risk.