Deciphering the past to inform the future: preparing for the next ("really big") extreme event

Authors: Peters, Debra; BURRUSS, N. DYLAN - New Mexico State University; OKIN, GREGORY - University Of California; Hatfield, Jerry; SCROGGS, STACEY - New Mexico State University; HUANG, HAITAO - New Mexico State University; BRUNGARD, COLBY - New Mexico State University; YAO, JIN - Non ARS Employee

Submitted to: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/15/2019
Publication Date: 4/6/2020
Citation: Peters, D.C., Burruss, N., Okin, G., Hatfield, J.L., Scroggs, S.S., Huang, H., Brungard, C., Yao, J. 2020. Deciphering the past to inform the future: preparing for the next ("really big") extreme event. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2194.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2194

Interpretive Summary: Climate change will bring more extremes in temperature and precipitation that will impact productivity and ecosystem resilience throughout the agroecosystem regions of the world. Historical events can be used to identify drivers of production and ecosystem resilience that impact agro-ecosystem responses to future events. A catastrophic drought in the U.S. in the 1930s resulted in an abrupt boundary between Dust Bowl-impacted areas and non-impacted areas. Historical primary production data confirmed the boundary location at the border between two states (Nebraska, Iowa). Local drivers of weather and soils explained production responses across the boundary before and after the drought (1926-1948). Landscape-scale features associated with the Missouri River and its floodplain were the dominant explanatory variables during the drought. The agro-ecosystem response of future extreme events may be affected by land surface properties that either accentuate or ameliorate these events. Consideration of processes at different scales will be necessary to interpret and manage for catastrophic events.

Technical Abstract: Climate change will bring more extremes in temperature and precipitation that will impact productivity and ecosystem resilience throughout the agroecosystem regions of the world. Historical events can be used to identify drivers that impact agro-ecosystem responses to future events. A catastrophic drought in the U.S. in the 1930s resulted in an abrupt boundary between Dust Bowl-impacted areas and non-impacted areas. Historical primary production data confirmed the boundary location at the border between two states (Nebraska, Iowa). Local drivers of weather and soils explained production responses across the boundary before and after the drought (1926-1948). Landscape-scale features associated with the Missouri River and its floodplain were the dominant explanatory variables during the drought. The agro-ecosystem response of future extreme events may be affected by land surface properties that either accentuate or ameliorate these events. Consideration of processes at different scales will be necessary to interpret and manage for catastrophic events.