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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Beltsville, Maryland (BARC) » Beltsville Agricultural Research Center » Sustainable Agricultural Systems Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #362612
Research Project: Enhancing Sustainability of Mid-Atlantic Agricultural Systems Using Agroecological Principles and Practices

Location: Sustainable Agricultural Systems Laboratory

Title: Long-term evidence shows crop rotation diversification increases agricultural resilience to adverse climate conditions in North America

Author
item BOWLES, TIMOTHY - University Of California
item MOOSHAMMER, M - University Of California
item SOCOLAR, Y - University Of California
item Calderon, Francisco
item Cavigelli, Michel
item CULMAN, STEVEN - The Ohio State University
item DEEN, WILLIAM - University Of Guelph
item DRURY, CRAIG - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada
item GARCIA Y GARCIA, A - University Of Minnesota
item GAUDIN, AMELIE - University Of California, Davis
item HARKCOM, W. SCOTT - Pennsylvania State University
item Lehman, R - Michael
item Osborne, Shannon
item ROBERTSON, G. PHILIP - Michigan State University
item SALERNO, J - Colorado State University
item Schmer, Marty
item STROCK, JEFFREY - University Of Minnesota
item GRANDY, A. STUART - University Of New Hampshire

Submitted to: One Earth
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/13/2020
Publication Date: 3/6/2020
Citation: Bowles, T.M., Mooshammer, M., Socolar, Y., Calderon, F.J., Cavigelli, M.A., Culman, S.W., Deen, W., Drury, C.F., Garcia Y Garcia, A., Gaudin, A., Harkcom, W., Lehman, R.M., Osborne, S.L., Robertson, G., Salerno, J., Schmer, M.R., Strock, J., Grandy, A. 2020. Long-term evidence shows crop rotation diversification increases agricultural resilience to adverse climate conditions in North America. One Earth. 2:284-293.

Interpretive Summary: Increased weather extremes predicted with climate change may increase crop yield variability. This variability may be reduced by increasing crop rotational diversity, but this proposition has not been systematically assessed in the US. Using unique datasets from 11 Long-Term Agroecological Research (LTAR) sites, researchers showed that crop rotational diversity increases corn yield across the US by an average of 30% while yield losses under unfavorable weather conditions such as drought were reduced by 14 to 90%. These results will be of interest to farmers, agricultural scientists and policymakers interested in improving the resiliency of US agriculture.

Technical Abstract: Climate variability threatens crop production and widespread disruptions of food systems in the present and future. Certain agricultural systems that increase environmental sustainability may also increase resilience to weather extremes and produce sufficient food, yet empirical evidence remains sparse. We use extensive long-term crop yield datasets from across a continental precipitation gradient to assess how temporal crop diversification affects maize yields in high-intensity grain systems. Using Bayesian multilevel regression and probability analyses, we show that more diverse crop rotations increase maize yields across all growing conditions (29.7% on average), especially in favorable conditions, and reduce yield losses under unfavorable weather conditions such as drought (14.0–89.9%). Systems approaches like crop rotation diversification must be considered a central component of risk reduction strategies and inform related policies.