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Research Project: Uncertainty of Future Water Availability Due to Climate Change and Impacts on the Long Term Sustainability and Resilience of Agricultural Lands in the Southern Great Plains

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Title: A weather generator-based climate downscaling tool for assessing climate change impact on crop production and soil erosion in NE China

Author
item Zhang, Xunchang
item CHEN, JIE - Wuhan University
item ZHENG, FENLI - Northwest A&f University

Submitted to: ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/15/2019
Publication Date: 11/11/2019
Citation: Zhang, X.J., Chen, J., Zheng, F. 2019. A weather generator-based climate downscaling tool for assessing climate change impact on crop production and soil erosion in NE China [abstract]. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting Abstracts. Available at: https://scisoc.confex.com/scisoc/2019am/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/118407.

Interpretive Summary: Abstract Only.

Technical Abstract: Assessment Report 5 (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) stated that global warming and climate change are real and will have significant impact on agricultural production. To assess the impact of climate change on crop production and soil erosion, monthly climates projected by Global Climate Models (GCMs) need to be downscaled to daily weather time series at a particular location or farm. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge the gap between climate model outputs and data requirements of impact models such as crop and soil erosion models. This presentation introduces a new downscaling software tool, called Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC), for use in downscaling monthly projections to daily values at station scales. The GPCC software is written in the Matlab language, and a standalone version can be run on Windows XP and above without the Matlab software. The tool has a graphical user interface that is simple and easy to use. The software program will be reviewed in depth, including detailed sciences employed in the tool. The future climate projections from 22 GCMS under three green house gas (GHG) emission scenarios of RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will be downscaled to two stations of Keshan and Bingxian in northeast China to demonstrate the utility of the tool as well as to diagnose the potential precipitation and temperature changes at the two stations in three 30-years periods of this century. The software can be downloaded from: https://github.com/Jiechenwhu/GPCC_StandalonePackage.