Lessons learned from the 2017 flash drought across the U.S. Northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies

Authors: HOELL, A - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); PARKER, B - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); DOWNEY, M - State Of Montana; UMPHLETT, N - University Of Nebraska; JENCSO, K - University Of Montana; AKYUZ, A - North Dakota State University; Peck, Dannele; HADWEN, T - Agriculture And Agri-Food Canada; FUCHS, B - University Of Nebraska; KLUCK, D - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); EDWARDS, L - Montana Department Of Natural Resources And Conservation; PERLWITZ, J - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); EISCHEID, J - University Of Colorado; DEHEZA, V - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); PULWARTY, R - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); BEVINGTON, K - National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Submitted to: American Meteorological Society
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/18/2020
Publication Date: 12/1/2020
Citation: Hoell, A., Parker, B., Downey, M., Umphlett, N., Jencso, K., Akyuz, A., Peck, D.E., Hadwen, T., Fuchs, B., Kluck, D., Edwards, L., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Deheza, V., Pulwarty, R., Bevington, K. 2020. Lessons learned from the 2017 flash drought across the U.S. Northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. American Meteorological Society. 101(12):E2171-E2185. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0272.1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0272.1

Interpretive Summary: Drought struck the Northern Great Plains in 2017--appearing quickly, without warning, and devastating much of Montana, the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies. The drought reduced agricultural production, worsened conditions for wildfires and negatively affected mental health. Agricultural losses exceeded $2.6 billion in the United States alone. The region's rainy season usually peaks in May-July, but instead soil moisture levels fell rapidly. Northeastern Montana saw the largest decline in soil moisture ever seen in any three-week period since 1916. This was caused by unusually hot daytime temperatures and record-low precipitation between May and July. Rains that were expected, based on seasonal forecasts available in April 2017, simply failed to arrive. The lack of early warning and devastation caused by drought motivated a team of university, tribal, state and federal partners to evaluate their drought-related coordination, communication, and management practices. Key lessons learned include: (1) the importance of building partnerships during non-drought periods to ensure a coordinated, rapid response during drought; (2) a need to improve drought-information providers' understanding of the decision calendars of all sectors; (3) because seasonal forecasts lack precision over the Northern Great Plains, ongoing monitoring of environmental conditions is vital to drought early warning.

Technical Abstract: The 2017 flash drought arrived without early warning and devastated a Northern Great Plains region comprised of Montana, the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies. The region was most affected by reduced agricultural production, wildfires and degraded mental health. The agricultural losses related to the drought exceeded $2.6B in the United States alone. The drought rapidly engulfed a Northern Great Plains region during the rainy season that peaks in May-July. Soil moisture fell from the 80th to the 18th percentile between mid-May and early June in northeastern Montana, which was the largest such decline for any three-week period since 1916. The soil moisture decline was caused by record low May-July precipitation and anomalously hot daytime temperatures. Early warning of the drought was not possible because failed rains were an unlikely outcome according to seasonal forecasts in April 2017. The lack of early warning of the drought and the devastation that it caused motivated a multi-agency collaboration among academic, tribal, state and federal partners to evaluate the efficacy of drought-related coordination, communication, and management practices. This collaboration led to an inventory of key lessons learned that can help the region prepare for future droughts. Lessons learned include: (1) Building partnerships during non-drought periods helps ensure that proper relationships are in place for a coordinated, rapid response during drought; (2) Drought information providers must improve their understanding of the annual decision cycles of all sectors; (3) Ongoing monitoring of environmental conditions is vital to drought early warning, given that seasonal forecasts lack precision over the Northern Great Plains.