Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Authors: DIPPOLD, DAVID - The Ohio State University; ALOYSIUS, NOEL - The Ohio State University; KEITZER, CONOR - Tusculum University; YEN, HAW - Texas Agrilife Research; Arnold, Jeffrey; DAGGUPATI, PRASAD - Texas Agrilife Research; FRAKER, MICHAEL - The Ohio State University; MARTIN, JAY - The Ohio State University; ROBERTSON, DALE - Us Geological Survey (USGS); SOWA, SCOTT - The Nature Conservancy; JOHNSON, MARI-VAUGHN - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); White, Michael; LUDSIN, STUART - The Ohio State University

Submitted to: Freshwater Biology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/25/2020
Publication Date: 9/1/2020
Citation: Dippold, D., Aloysius, N., Keitzer, C., Yen, H., Arnold, J.G., Daggupati, P., Fraker, M., Martin, J., Robertson, D., Sowa, S., Johnson, M., White, M.J., Ludsin, S. 2020. Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie. Freshwater Biology. 65:1487-1508. https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13515.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13515

Interpretive Summary: Climate change and non-point source (NPS) pollution threaten aquatic ecosystems and their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs), farming practices that reduce erosion and excessive nutrient pollution may reduce the negative effects of NPS pollution on fish populations. However, little information exists on how ACPs function amidst a changing climate and the ultimate effects on fish production. Towards this end, we explore how climate change and ACPs might impact three fish populations (walleye, yellow perch, and white perch) in the western basin of Lake Erie. We found that, walleye and yellow perch populations can be expected to decrease and that white perch can be expected to increase. We found potential tradeoffs between improving water quality and maintaining fisheries production in the face of anticipated climate change that should be examined during future conservation policy development.

Technical Abstract: Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non-point source (NPS) pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs), farming practices that reduce erosion and curb excessive nutrient loading to streams, offer one potential way to mitigate the negative effects of NPS pollution on fish populations. However, little information exists on how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs. Towards this end, we explore how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (walleye Sander vitreus, yellow perch Perca flavescens, and white perch Morone americanca) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We forecasted future recruitment under different combinations of anticipated (2020-2065) climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie basin watershed using predictive biological models and forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River TP loads generated from linked climate, watershed-hydrology, and agricultural practice-simulation models. We show that in general, walleye and yellow perch recruitment can be expected to decrease and that white perch recruitment can be expected to increase, relative to the recent past. We also demonstrate that potential tradeoffs exist between improving water quality and maintaining fisheries production in the face of anticipated climate change. Our study presents a useful modeling framework to forecast fish recruitment, and provides expectations for resource management agencies and policy makers that can help them develop adaptive and resilient management strategies.