Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050

Authors: Fukagawa, Naomi; SULSER, TIMOTHY - International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI); BEACH, ROBERT - Rti International, Usa; DUNSTON, SHANILA - International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI); WIEBE, KEITH - International Food Policy Researc Institute (IFPRI)

Submitted to: The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/8/2021
Publication Date: 5/20/2021
Citation: Fukagawa, N.K., Sulser, T.B., Beach, R., Dunston, S., Wiebe, K. 2021. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqab101.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqab101

Interpretive Summary: Future climate change presents a challenge for food and nutrition security. Using a novel combination of a disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimation procedure and food system scenario projections from IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, projections of DALYs in the context of climate change and the potential for adaptation through investments in agricultural research and development out to mid-century were assessed. Total DALYs due to chronic and hidden hunger are increasing globally out to 2050—by over 30 million compared to 2010—even without climate change. Climate change exacerbates hunger issues, increasing the change in DALYs between 2010 and 2050 by just under ten percent. However, a feasible set of investments in the agricultural sector show promise for more than offsetting these impacts. Per capita incidence of DALYs due to chronic and hidden hunger are decreasing globally, but total population growth is outpacing the reduction in rates. This is particularly the case in Sub-Saharan Africa where DALYs due to both chronic and hidden hunger are increasing out to 2050. Elsewhere the projections show important reductions in total DALYs due to (i) chronic hunger in South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific and (ii) hidden hunger in East Asia and the Pacific. Hidden hunger persists as a difficult challenge (increasing slightly) in South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa.

Technical Abstract: Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food and nutrition security. Using nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy and program actions around the world.Estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation. We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALYs estimation procedure and food system scenario projections from a quantitative foresight modeling framework to assess projections of DALYs in the context of climate change and adaptation through investments in the agricultural sector out to mid-century. Total DALYs due to chronic and hidden hunger are projected to increase globally out to 2050—by over 30 million compared to 2010—even without climate change. Climate change exacerbates hunger issues and increases the change in DALYs between 2010 and 2050 by nearly ten percent compared to a no climate change future. Investments in the agricultural sector show promise for more than offsetting these impacts. With these investments, the incidence of DALYs due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally, but total population growth will outpace the reduction in rates, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, projections show reductions in total DALYs due to chronic hunger (South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (East Asia and the Pacific). Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing incidence of DALYs from chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth, however, can outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs in some regions. Climate change increases the per capita incidence of chronic and hidden hunger DALYs compared to a no climate change future. Investments in the agricultural sector show potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.