Quantifying the effects of climate change in the Central Mississippi River Basin: ten years of study.

Authors: Baffaut, Claire; GAUTAM, SAGAR - University Of Missouri; PHUNG, QUANG - University Of Missouri; THOMPSON, ALLEN - University Of Missouri; COSTELLO, CHRISTINE - Pennsylvania State University; SADLER, E. JOHN - Retired ARS Employee

Submitted to: International Soil and Water Conservation Conference
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/17/2021
Publication Date: 7/26/2021
Citation: Baffaut, C., Gautam, S., Phung, Q., Thompson, A., Costello, C., Sadler, E. 2021. Quantifying the effects of climate change in the Central Mississippi River Basin: ten years of study [abstract]. 76th International Soil and Water Conservation Society Annual Conference, July 26-28, 2021, virtual. Available: https://www.swcs.org/events/past-events/past-annual-conferences/2021-annual-conference/

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Climate change analyses at the Central Mississippi River Basin site of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network started in 2012 with the objective of understanding the current and anticipated climate trends and their impacts on agriculture and water management. They have included independent analyses of current and expected climatic and hydrologic trends, but lack an overall integration of the results. This presentation synthesizes the results from these studies, which used varying downscaling approaches, global climate change models, and emission scenarios. The objective is to extract the most consistent and meaningful conclusions and identify promising strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change. Historical data showed increasing peak daily flows and number of zero flow days. All studies predicted a rise in projected temperature, for all seasons, for the near and far future. In contrast, early (CMIP 3) scenarios did not foresee any near future change in precipitation but later (CMIP5) medium and high emission scenarios predicted increased precipitation for both the near and far future, consistently over the spring months (March through June). Simulation of the combined effects of increasing temperature and precipitation showed more runoff and increased drought frequency and severity. Field scale adaptation measures included modifying rotations to include crops that could accommodate both dry and wet conditions. Watershed scale measures included enhancing water storage infrastructure, modifying the allowed uses for stored water, and converting some cropland to forest or grassland. Water resources managers can use these results to guide climate change adaptation in this region.