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ARS Home » Northeast Area » University Park, Pennsylvania » Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #384566
Research Project: Sustainable Intensification of Crop and Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems at Multiple Scales

Location: Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research

Title: Environmental footprints of colorado dairy systems: predictions using process-based farm system and climate models

Author
item LOUDENBACK, ANDREA - Colorado State University
item DILLON, JASMINE - Colorado State University
item Rotz, Clarence - Al

Submitted to: Western Section of Animal Science Proceedings
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/10/2021
Publication Date: 10/17/2021
Citation: Loudenback, A.J., Dillon, J.A., Rotz, C.A. 2021. Environmental footprints of colorado dairy systems: predictions using process-based farm system and climate models[abstract]. Western Section of Animal Science Proceedings. P.1.

Interpretive Summary: No Interpretive Summary is required for this Abstract Only. JLB.

Technical Abstract: The Northern Great Plains is projected to see rising average daily temperatures, greater precipitation variability, and increased overall weather variability over the next 75 years. These changes have potentially negative implications for Colorado dairy systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate the implications of climate change on resource use and environmental footprints (EFs) of Colorado dairies. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was used to estimate the carbon (CF), blue water (WF), reactive nitrogen (NrF), and energy (EF) footprints of a 5000-cow dairy operation at historic, mid- and end of century time points. Model inputs were obtained through an interview and supplemented with data from the literature and publicly available USDA databases as necessary. The farm was modeled with a target annual milk yield of 12,231 kg FPCM per cow; 200 ha of irrigated corn silage production for manure management with additional synthetic fertilizer applied at 80 and 9 kg N and P per ha, respectively; and 6-mo manure storage in an uncovered earthen basin. About 60% of the manure produced by the farm was applied to corn silage via irrigation over the course of the growing season. The remainder was sold. The farm was simulated over three time periods: historic (1990-2015), mid-century (2040-2065), and late century (2075-2100). Nine climate models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to evaluate potential climate impacts to resource use and EFs of the farm. On average, over the three time periods, the RCP 8.5 scenario resulted in greater change. Across all climate models, CFs increased by 4.3 and 4.4%, on average, for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, from the historic to late century time periods. The WFs for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 increased by 0.8 and 2.2%, respectively, 85% of which was attributed to irrigated feed. The NrF showed the greatest response to changes in climate over the period, with projected increases of 7 and 12% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, over the time period. Increases in NrFs were driven by an average 13% increase in ammonia emissions, which were the greatest contributor (70%) to the NrF. Lastly, EFs for each time period showed negligible changes, with only a 0.28 and 1.08% increase for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, over the time period. Increases in NrF have implications for air quality and may be mitigated by modifications to nitrogen management practices on Colorado dairy farms.