Skip to main content
ARS Home » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #384571
Research Project: Uncertainty of Future Water Availability Due to Climate Change and Impacts on the Long Term Sustainability and Resilience of Agricultural Lands in the Southern Great Plains

Location: Location not imported yet.

Title: Simulated atmospheric response to four projected land use land cover change scenarios for 2050 in the north central United States

Author
item Flanagan, Paul
item MAHMOOD, REZAUL - University Of Nebraska
item SOHL, TERRY - Us Geological Survey (USGS)
item SVOBODA, MARK - University Of Nebraska
item WARDLOW, BRIAN - University Of Nebraska
item HAYES, MICHAEL - University Of Nebraska
item RAPPIN, ERIC - University Of Nebraska

Submitted to: Earth Interactions
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/2/2021
Publication Date: 10/5/2021
Citation: Flanagan, P.X., Mahmood, R., Sohl, T., Svoboda, M., Wardlow, B., Hayes, M., Rappin, E. 2021. Simulated atmospheric response to four projected land use land cover change scenarios for 2050 in the north central United States. Earth Interactions. 152(1):177-194.

Interpretive Summary: Land cover has become an important topic for the central United States given the large shift from natural grasslands to cropland in the last 100 years. Conservation efforts have become commonplace across the region, with cropland areas being converted back to more natural grassland areas. Given these past and future changes of land cover across the region, research has started to investigate the impact of the current and future land use scenarios on weather and climate. To this end, our research sought to provide a first use example of a new future modeled land cover dataset from the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-Use Change (FORE-SCE) model within the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The goals of this research was to investigate the use of the FORE-SCE land cover dataset in WRF in terms of impacts to the near-surface atmosphere and the convective environment. Further, as this is one of the first uses of the FORE-SCE dataset within WRF, a comparison between this dataset and the default land cover dataset within WRF is completed. Our results show that the FORE-SCE modeled land cover dataset is distinctly different and more accurate than the default WRF land cover data. Further, comparisons between simulations using historical and future land cover data from the FORE-SCE dataset shows that the land cover change has specific impacts across the simulation domain with regards to the near-surface and convective environment. Our work represents one of the first diagnostic studies within WRF detailing the use of the FORE-SCE land cover dataset within the modeling system. Future research can utilize the results presented within this study to guide their WRF simulation setups, and to predict impacts to the atmosphere within WRF from use of the FORE-SCE dataset.

Technical Abstract: Land cover has become an important topic for the central United States given the large shift from natural grasslands to cropland in the last 100 years. Conservation efforts have become commonplace across the region, with cropland areas being converted back to more natural grassland areas. Given these past and future changes of land cover across the region, research has started to investigate the impact of the current and future land use scenarios on weather and climate. To this end, our research sought to provide a first use example of a new future modeled land cover dataset from the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-Use Change (FORE-SCE) model within the Weather, Research, and Forecast (WRF) modeling system. The goals of this research was to investigate the use of the FORE-SCE land cover dataset in WRF in terms of impacts to the near-surface atmosphere and the convective environment. Further, as this is one of the first uses of the FORE-SCE dataset within WRF, a comparison between this dataset and the default land cover dataset within WRF is completed. Our results show that the FORE-SCE modeled land cover dataset is distinctly different and more accurate than the default WRF land cover data. Further, comparisons between simulations using historical and future land cover data from the FORE-SCE dataset shows that the land cover change has specific impacts across the simulation domain with regards to the near-surface and convective environment. Our work represents one of the first diagnostic studies within WRF detailing the use of the FORE-SCE land cover dataset within the modeling system. Future research can utilize the results presented within this study to guide their WRF simulation setups, and to predict impacts to the atmosphere within WRF from use of the FORE-SCE dataset.