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Research Project: Uncertainty of Future Water Availability Due to Climate Change and Impacts on the Long Term Sustainability and Resilience of Agricultural Lands in the Southern Great Plains

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Title: Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation in the Missouri River Basin from 1950-2019

Author
item Flanagan, Paul
item MAHMOOD, REZAUL - University Of Nebraska

Submitted to: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/22/2021
Publication Date: 6/1/2021
Citation: Flanagan, P.X., Mahmood, R. 2021. Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation in the Missouri River Basin from 1950-2019. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 60(6):811-827. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0212.1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0212.1

Interpretive Summary: Extreme precipitation events in the Missouri River Basin can be impactful to the regional economy and populace. Given the size and spatial coverage of the Missouri River and its tributaries, even a small, but high precipitation total storm can cause a large flooding or flash flood event. This is especially true during the summer, as water levels are typically higher during the summer, and spring during the spring thaw. Even so, extreme precipitation events in the Missouri River Basin have not been a focus of previous research. This work investigated time series of heavy precipitation events across 131 stations in the Missouri River Basin to detect shifts in the nature of extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2019. Our results show that extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and more intense through the 1950 to 2019 period. All four seasons show distinct patters of increasing intensity of extreme precipitation events, with the largest increases in the eastern Missouri River Basin during the spring, summer, and fall. Overall, the results of this work show that care needs to be taken within the Missouri River basin with regards to future extremes of precipitation. Events are becoming more intense and frequent, thus stakeholders and emergency managers in this region should be prepared for more record breaking events within this region such as the March 2019 precipitation event and subsequent large-scale flood.

Technical Abstract: Extreme precipitation events in the Missouri River Basin can be impactful to the regional economy and populace. Given the size and spatial coverage of the Missouri River and its tributaries, even a small, but high precipitation total storm can cause a large flooding or flash flood event. This is especially true during the summer, as water levels are typically higher during the summer, and spring during the spring thaw. Even so, extreme precipitation events in the Missouri River Basin have not been a focus of previous research. This work investigated time series of heavy precipitation events across 131 stations in the Missouri River Basin to detect shifts in the nature of extreme precipitation from 1950 to 2019. Our results show that extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and more intense through the 1950 to 2019 period. All four seasons show distinct patters of increasing intensity of extreme precipitation events, with the largest increases in the eastern Missouri River Basin during the spring, summer, and fall. Overall, the results of this work show that care needs to be taken within the Missouri River basin with regards to future extremes of precipitation. Events are becoming more intense and frequent, thus stakeholders and emergency managers in this region should be prepared for more record breaking events within this region such as the March 2019 precipitation event and subsequent large-scale flood.