Regionalizing crop types to enhance global ecosystem modeling of maize production

Authors: YANG, YI - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; OGLE, STEPHEN - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; Del Grosso, Stephen - Steve; MUELLER, NATHAN - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; SPENCER, SHANNON - COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; RAY, DEEPAK - UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

Submitted to: Environmental Research Letters
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 12/1/2021
Publication Date: 12/23/2021
Citation: Yang, Y., Ogle, S., Del Grosso, S.J., Mueller, N., Spencer, S., Ray, D. 2021. Regionalizing crop types to enhance global ecosystem modeling of maize production. Environmental Research Letters. 17. Article e014013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f06.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3f06

Interpretive Summary: Improving the prediction of crop yields is critical for policy development associated with global food security, particularly as the climate continues to change. Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly used for predicting crop yields around the world. However, the models typically use a single crop variety in global assessments, implying that major crops are identical across all regions of the world. To address this limitation, we applied modern statistical techniques to calibrate regional varieties of corn for the DayCent ecosystem model using global corn yield data from 2001 to 2013. We selected major cropping regions from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and identified the most important model parameters using sensitivity analysis. We calibrated DayCent and found significant improvement in DayCent simulations of corn yields with regional varieties. Compared to a single type of corn for the world, the region specific corn varieties improved model accuracy by 11%, 31%, 27%, 30%, 19%, and 27% for Africa, East Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and South & Southeast Asia, respectively. We also found the optimum parameter values of sunlight use efficiency are positively correlated with the income level of different regions, which indicates that breeding has enhanced the efficiency of corn in developed countries. There may also be opportunities for expanding crop breeding programs in developing countries to enhance efficiency and reduce the yield gap in these regions. This study highlights the importance of representing regional variation in crop types for achieving accurate predictions of crop yields.

Technical Abstract: Improving the prediction of crop production is critical for policy development associated with global food security, particularly as the climate continues to change. Process-based ecosystem models are increasingly used for simulating global agricultural production. However, such simulations often use a single crop variety in global assessments, implying that major crops are identical across all regions of the world. To address this limitation, we applied a Bayesian approach to calibrate regional varieties of corn for the DayCent ecosystem model, using global crop production data from 2001 to 2013. We selected major cropping regions from the FAO Global Agro-Environmental Stratification as a basis for the regionalization and identified the most important model parameters through a global sensitivity analysis. We calibrated DayCent using the sampling importance sampling algorithm and found significant improvement in DayCent simulations of corn yields with the calibrated regional varieties. Compared to a single type of corn for the world, the regionalization of corn varieties leads to reductions in root mean squared error of 11%, 31%, 27%, 30%, 19%, and 27% and reductions in bias of 59%, 59%, 50%, 81%, 32%, and 56% for Africa, East Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and South & Southeast Asia, respectively. We also found the optimum parameter values of radiation use efficiency are positively correlated with the income level of different regions, which indicates that breeding has enhanced the photosynthetic efficiency of corn in developed countries. There may also be opportunities for expanding crop breeding programs in developing countries to enhance photosynthesis efficiency and reduce the yield gap in these regions. This study highlights the importance of representing regional variation in crop types for achieving accurate predictions of crop yields.