Indicators of observed and projected climate vulnerability and transformation in New Mexico

Authors: Elias, Emile; BRADFORD, JOHN - Us Geological Survey (USGS); STEELE, CAITI - New Mexico State University; BROWN, JOEL - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); ANEY, SKYE - New Mexico State University; Spiegal, Sheri; James, Darren; Deswood, Helena

Submitted to: Society for Range Management
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/1/2021
Publication Date: 2/18/2021
Citation: Elias, E.H., Bradford, J., Steele, C., Brown, J., Aney, S., Spiegal, S.A., James, D.K., Deswood, H. 2021. Indicators of observed and projected climate vulnerability and transformation in New Mexico. Society for Range Management. Abstract.

Interpretive Summary: Observed metrics such as changes in mean and extreme temperature and reduced snowpack indicate climate change is already occurring in New Mexico. In many parts of the world, these measured biophysical changes are leading to ecosystem, individual and community transformation. In New Mexico, agricultural producers are already adapting and in some cases may be transforming systems to cope with the impacts of climate change. Biophysical and agroecosystem variability indicates that adaptation may be sufficient in some locations, time windows and agroecosystems whereas transformation may be necessary in other systems and locations in the future. Here we present historic and projected available soil water across New Mexico to highlight temporal and spatial variability in one metric of climate exposure. We overlay changes in soil water with observed rangeland forage (net primary production), insurance indemnity payments, conservation practice implementation, surface water/ground water use, depth to water and risk-based metrics to quantify observed agroecosystem adaptation (insurance, irrigation, conservation practices) and potential agroecosystem transformation (changes in acres planted, livestock numbers, irrigators, depth-to-water). We discuss when a trend becomes a transformation and potential conditions for appropriate, community-led, respectful agroecosystem transformation. 

Technical Abstract: Observed metrics such as changes in mean and extreme temperature and reduced snowpack indicate climate change is already occurring in New Mexico. In many parts of the world, these measured biophysical changes are leading to ecosystem, individual and community transformation. In New Mexico, agricultural producers are already adapting and in some cases may be transforming systems to cope with the impacts of climate change. Biophysical and agroecosystem variability indicates that adaptation may be sufficient in some locations, time windows and agroecosystems whereas transformation may be necessary in other systems and locations in the future. Here we present historic and projected available soil water across New Mexico to highlight temporal and spatial variability in one metric of climate exposure. We overlay changes in soil water with observed rangeland forage (net primary production), insurance indemnity payments, conservation practice implementation, surface water/ground water use, depth to water and risk-based metrics to quantify observed agroecosystem adaptation (insurance, irrigation, conservation practices) and potential agroecosystem transformation (changes in acres planted, livestock numbers, irrigators, depth-to-water). We discuss when a trend becomes a transformation and potential conditions for appropriate, community-led, respectful agroecosystem transformation.