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ARS Home » Plains Area » Sidney, Montana » Northern Plains Agricultural Research Laboratory » Pest Management Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #390989
Research Project: Forecasting, Outbreak Prevention, and Ecology of Grasshoppers and Other Rangeland and Crop Insects in the Great Plains

Location: Pest Management Research

Title: Amplification in time and dilution in space: Partitioning spatiotemporal processes to assess the role of avian host phylodiversity in shaping eastern equine encephalitis virus distribution

Author
item Humphreys Jr, John

Submitted to: Geographies
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/6/2022
Publication Date: 7/8/2022
Citation: Humphreys Jr., J.M. 2022. Amplification in time and dilution in space: Partitioning spatiotemporal processes to assess the role of avian host phylodiversity in shaping eastern equine encephalitis virus distribution. Geographies. 2(3):419-434. https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies2030026.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geographies2030026

Interpretive Summary: This research uses eastern equine encephalitis virus data to compare and evaluate different approaches to modeling species co-occurrence. Eastern equine encephalitis virus is an arthropod-borne virus and the causative pathogen of disease in humans, horses, poultry, and wildlife. Results highlight the need to carefully consider statistical assumptions when modeling complex ecological dynamics.

Technical Abstract: Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEv) is an arthropod-borne virus and the causative pathogen of neurologic disease in humans, horses, poultry, and wildlife. Although EEEv is known to be amplified in cycles involving avian hosts and ornithophilic mosquitoes, less is known about the role that avian host diversity plays in potentially diluting or amplifying virus prevalence across geographic space and through time. This study leveraged sixteen years of non-human EEEv detections to quantify possible EEEv dilution and amplification effects in response to avian host phylodiversity. In assessing EEEv and host diversity relationships, varying statistical assumptions were compared to judge how modeling decisions impacted results and the eventual interpretations drawn from those results. Principal findings indicated that EEEv exhibits a dilution effect across geographic space in response to increased avian phylodiversity, however the dilution effect is scale dependent and masked by increased virus numbers that accumulate through time. Findings also demonstrated that the decisions made when modeling complex spatiotemporal dynamics can readily contribute to contrasting statistical outcomes and results misinterpretation.