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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Fort Pierce, Florida » U.S. Horticultural Research Laboratory » Subtropical Plant Pathology Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #391458
Research Project: Mitigating High Consequence Domestic, Exotic, and Emerging Diseases of Fruits, Vegetables, and Ornamentals

Location: Subtropical Plant Pathology Research

Title: Structural changes in Florida citrus production, 1980-2021 and associated consequences of weather events and disease

Author
item Taylor, Earl
item GOTTWALD, TIM - Retired ARS Employee
item Adkins, Scott

Submitted to: Journal of Citrus Pathology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/24/2023
Publication Date: 10/26/2023
Citation: Taylor, E.L., Gottwald, T.R., Adkins, S.T. Structural changes in Florida citrus production, 1980-2021 and associated consequences of weather events and disease. Journal of Citrus Pathology. 10. 2023. https://doi.org/10.5070/C410156360.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5070/C410156360

Interpretive Summary: Florida citrus production values were examined to determine the associated impact or effect resulting from adverse weather events (i.e. hurricanes and freezes), and disease introductions including Huanglongbing (HLB) that have occurred since 1980. The effects associated with these effects were then identified and quantified and used to provide forecasts to explain the future continued effect of HLB on the Florida citrus industry, and implications for other citrus producers within the US. The resulting effects on the Florida citrus industry were highlighted by examining published economic impact studies, and reporting on the reductions in economic impact of the Florida citrus industry as a result of HLB.

Technical Abstract: Florida citrus production from 1980-2021 was examined and modeled to determine the impacts associated with weather events and disease introductions. Specifically, the study examined the effects of North Atlantic hurricanes, freezes events and two disease introductions -- Asiatic citrus canker (ACC), and Huanglongbing (HLB) -- on productions levels and on the structure of the Florida citrus industry. The models estimated quantified the effects on production associated with the weather events and disease introductions. Using the deterministic model generated, forecasts were generated to identify future implications of HLB on Florida citrus production. Theses generated forecasts were compared to actual production levels and the USDA Crop forecast to test and validate the model. Whereas testing indicated a significant structural change in the Florida citrus industry resulting from adverse weather events and disease introductions, published economic impact studies were examined and reviewed to gage the resulting reduction in total economic impact.