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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Stoneville, Mississippi » Pollinator Health in Southern Crop Ecosystems Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #396335
Research Project: Ecological Assessment and Mitigation Strategies to Reduce the Risks of Bees to Stressors in Southern Crop Ecosystems

Location: Pollinator Health in Southern Crop Ecosystems Research

Title: Tracking the effects of climate change on the distribution of Plecia nearctica (Diptera, Bibionidae) in the USA using MaxEnt and GIS

Author
item ABOU-SHAARA, HOSSAM - Mississippi State University
item AMIRI, ESMAEIL - Mississippi State University
item Parys, Katherine

Submitted to: Diversity
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/19/2022
Publication Date: 8/21/2022
Citation: Abou-Shaara, H.F., Amiri, E., Parys, K.A. 2022. Tracking the effects of climate change on the distribution of Plecia nearctica (Diptera, Bibionidae) in the USA using MaxEnt and GIS. Diversity. 14(8):690 (11pgs). https://doi.org/10.3390/d14080690.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/d14080690

Interpretive Summary: Lovebugs are a subtropical pest that is a species of march fly. With future changes in climate expected, the range and distribution of this pest could be altered. It has been reported that honey bees in particular will not visit flowers that these flies are occupying, suggesting that there could be negative interactions between the species. To examine potential future changes in range and distribution we used two software programs to map currently known populations and extrapolate where suitable habitat may be in the future. Result suggest that mugh of the gulf coast, southeast, and part of the west coast could be suitable habitat in 2050.

Technical Abstract: Plecia nearctica Hardy, commonly referred to as lovebugs, is a species of march fly with a sub-tropical American distribution. The northern range limits of P. nearctica could alter as a result of climate change which is a worldwide issue. It has been reported that flowers utilized by P. nearc-tica are less attractive to pollinators, which may negatively impact foraging activity of pollina-tors. This study used 933-occurrence records of P. nearctica in the USA to predict its potential range expansion in the near future (2050). To predict habitat change we applied well established modeling steps using both MaxEnt and geographical information system (GIS). Six environmen-tal variables, two climate models, and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) were selected to be used in the analysis. The model performance was excellent with high value of True Skilled Statistics (= 0.75). The predicted potential distribution and range expansion of P. nearctica in 2050 includes the gulf-coast, southeastern, and western regions of the USA. However, results suggest that most of central and northern parts of the USA are unlikely to pro-vide suitable habitat for this pest, and have no reason for there to be a concern about interaction between pollinators and P. nearctica.