U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events

Authors: ZHAO, HAIDONG - Kansas State University; ZHANG, LINA - Kansas State University; KIRKHAM, M.B. - Kansas State University; WELCH, STEVEN - Kansas State University; NIELSEN-GAMMON, JOHN - Texas A&M University; Bai, Guihua; LOU, JIEBO - University Of Rochester; ANDERSON, DANIEL - Kansas State University; RICE, CHARLIES - Kansas State University; WAN, NENGHAN - Kansas State University; LOLLATO, ROMULO - Kansas State University; ZHANG, DIANFENG - Guangdong Ocean University; Gowda, Prasanna; LIN, XIAOMAO - Kansas State University

Submitted to: Nature Communications
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/11/2022
Publication Date: 11/24/2022
Citation: Zhao, H., Zhang, L., Kirkham, M., Welch, S., Nielsen-Gammon, J., Bai, G., Lou, J., Anderson, D., Rice, C., Wan, N., Lollato, R., Zhang, D., Gowda, P.H., Lin, X. 2022. U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34947-6.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34947-6

Interpretive Summary: Compound hot-dry-windy events (HDWs) caused significant winter wheat yield losses in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020 with a 4% yield reduction per 10 hours of HDWs during heading to maturity. HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reduced wheat yield at a rate of up to 0.08 tons per hectare per decade. We found that the most severely HDW-impacted areas are the same as the ones affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that these compound HDWs have been overlooked by traditional risk assessments and have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.

Technical Abstract: Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss, and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we present that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDWs) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDWs were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 hours of HDWs during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.08 t ha-1 per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We operationalized the “yield shock”, which was spatially distributed, with the highest losses in severely HDW-affected areas, retrospectively the same ones affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that these compound HDWs, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.