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ARS Home » Plains Area » Fort Collins, Colorado » Center for Agricultural Resources Research » Water Management and Systems Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #399028
Research Project: Improving Resiliency of Semi-Arid Agroecosystems and Watersheds to Change and Disturbance through Data-Driven Research, AI, and Integrated Models

Location: Water Management and Systems Research

Title: Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires

Author
item HIGUERA, P - University Of Montana
item COOK, MAXWELL - University Of Colorado
item BALCH, J - University Of Colorado
item STAVROS, E - University Of Colorado
item Mahood, Adam
item ST. DENIS, L - University Of Colorado

Submitted to: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences-Nexus
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/3/2023
Publication Date: 2/1/2023
Citation: Higuera, P.E., Cook, M.C., Balch, J.K., Stavros, E.N., Mahood, A.L., St. Denis, L.E. 2023. Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences-Nexus. 2(3). Article epgad005. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005

Interpretive Summary: Wildfire activity is intensifying in the western United States. Socioeconomic effects of wildfires is also increasing. We found that the number of structures destroyed by wildfires increased by 240% in recent decades. In addition, the number of structures lost was explained by human-caused area burned, rather than total area burned. Climate change is magnifying the impacts of human-started wildfires.

Technical Abstract: We document a >240% increase in the number of structures destroyed by wildfires over the past two decades (1999-2009 to 2010-2020) across the West, with the majority occurring in just three recent fire seasons of 2017, 2018, and 2020. Structure loss is not just increasing because of more area burned: the number structure loss per unit area burned increased significantly (160% over the two decades), indicating that human factors are key to understanding this increase in structure loss. We need to acknowledge the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire patterns, or the fire regime, as social-ecological phenomena. Extreme events are important/driving the increase in structure loss. While other studies have shown that anthropogenic warming has increased fire activity, companion to this we show that human factors are increasingly contributing to wildfire disasters. The consequences of human-started fires are becoming more severe as a function of climate change. Climate change is magnifying the impacts of human-started wildfire.