Spatiotemporal distribution of agrometeorological disasters in China and its impact on grain yield under climate change

Authors: ZHAO, YAJUN - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University; ZHENG, RUNHE - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University; ZHENG, FENLI - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University; ZHONG, KEYUAN - Gannan Normal University; FU, JINXIA - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University; ZHANG, JIAQIONG - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University; Flanagan, Dennis; XU, XIMENG - Institute Of Geographic Sciences And Natural Resources; LI, ZHI - Northwest Agricultural & Forestry University

Submitted to: Ecological Indicators
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/23/2024
Publication Date: 7/8/2023
Citation: Zhao, Y., Zheng, R., Zheng, F., Zhong, K., Fu, J., Zhang, J., Flanagan, D.C., Xu, X., Li, Z. 2023. Spatiotemporal distribution of agrometeorological disasters in China and its impact on grain yield under climate change. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103823.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103823

Interpretive Summary: In this research, observed climate data from 1978 to 2020, along with data on five types of weather disasters affecting agriculture in different regions of China were used to determine any possible relationships. The disasters examined were droughts, floods, hail storms, freeze/snow events, and typhoons. Overall during this time period, occurrence rates of disasters decreased from 1978 to 2020, especially for droughts, floods, and hail storm events. Disaster rates in northern China were greater than in the southern parts. Also, information on grain yields during this time period was also compared to the changes in disaster occurrences, and generally as disasters decreased, grain yields tended to increase. Also, grain yields were most affected by weather disasters in northeast and southwest China, compared to other regions. Crop yields were most affected by flooding and hail storms, and extreme temperatures from changing climate had more effect on grain yields than extreme rainfall did. This study provides important information on how climate change can influence crop productivity, and the relative importance of certain types of weather disasters compared to others. It can also help indicate how projected changes in climate in the future in other parts of the world may affect grain productivity there. Other scientists, agricultural statistics agency personnel, and conservation agency staff may all benefit from information provided in this research.

Technical Abstract: Agrometeorological disasters in the context of climate change pose a great threat to agricultural production and food security in China, thus clarifying spatiotemporal patterns of long-term agrometeorological disasters can provide an important scientific basis for decision-making. This study analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of five types of agrometeorological disasters (droughts, floods, hail storm events, low-temperature freezing and snow (LTFS) events, and typhoons) in China at both regional and provincial scales, assessed the impacts of these agrometeorological disasters on grain yield, and explored influences of extreme climate on agrometeorological disasters and grain yield. The results were as follows: 1) from 1978 to 2020, occurrence rate of total agrometeorological disasters generally showed a decreasing trend. Among the five types of disasters, occurrence rates of droughts, floods, and hail storm events had significant downward trends, while the LTFS events and typhoon disasters occurrence rates had no significant changes; 2) At the regional scale, occurrence rate of agrometeorological disasters in the northern part of China (Northeast region, Northwest region, North China and Huanghuai region) was greater than that in the southern part of China (middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, South China, and Southwest region). Occurrence rates of agrometeorological disasters in most provinces exhibited decreasing trends. Drought and hail storm event occurrence rates in most provinces had declining trends, while floods, the LTFS events, and typhoons had increasing trends in some areas. And the complexity of disasters has increased since 2010; 3) The reduction in agrometeorological disasters was conducive to an increase in grain yields. Grain yields were more affected by agrometeorological disasters in the Northeast region, North China and the Huanghuai region, and the Southwest region than that of other regions. Floods and hail storm events had greater impacts on grain yields among the five types of disasters; and 4) Droughts, floods and typhoons were affected by the extreme precipitation index, and hail storm and LTFS events were affected by the extreme temperature index. Grain yield per unit area was more affected by extreme temperature than extreme precipitation. This study is expected to provide a scientific basis for formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures.