Current and future trends on US rangelands: An analysis supporting the 2020 RPA assessment

Authors: REEVES, MATT - Us Forest Service (FS); McCord, Sarah; CLAASSEN, ROGER - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); METZ, LORI - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); KACHERGIS, EMILY - Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS, USDA); KREBS, MICHAEL - Consultant

Submitted to: US-International Association for Landscape Ecology
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/19/2023
Publication Date: 3/23/2023
Citation: Reeves, M., McCord, S.E., Claassen, R., Metz, L., Kachergis, E., Krebs, M. 2023. Current and future trends on US rangelands: An analysis supporting the 2020 RPA assessment. US-International Association for Landscape Ecology. Abstract.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment process is a unique and integrated evaluation of forest and rangeland resources and ecosystem services across the conterminous United States, conducted every 10 years by the USDA Forest Service. The results of the 2020 RPA Rangeland Assessment leveraged the advances in remote sensing and computational capacity to evaluate past and future trends. The results of the Assessment can be summarized in three main findings. First rangeland productivity has been increasing in the north while decreasing in the south while most locations have experienced significant increases in inter-annual variability. Second, climate change projections suggest these patterns will intensify in the future such that the range between interannual highs and lows may reach 300 percent. The desert southwest is expected to experience the greatest declines in annual production. Third, projections suggest growing seasons will decline from between 4 to 7 days on average, but the Pacific Northwest could experience declines of about 20 days owed to moisture constraints.