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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Columbia, Missouri » Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #402367
Research Project: Linkages Between Crop Production Management and Sustainability in the Central Mississippi River Basin

Location: Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research

Title: Temperature, precipitation, and discharge trends in Mark Twain Lake Watershed

Author
item Baffaut, Claire
item Metz, Megan

Submitted to: Soil and Water Conservation Society International Annual Conference
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/28/2023
Publication Date: 8/6/2023
Citation: Baffaut, C., Metz, M.E. 2023. Temperature, precipitation, and discharge trends in Mark Twain Lake Watershed [abstract]. 78th Soil and Water Conservation Society International Annual Conference, August 6-9, 2023, Des Moines, Iowa. p. 112.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Global Climate Models (GCM) downscaled to the Central and Upper Mississippi River Basin predict increases in temperatures and precipitation. Eco-hydrologic models driven by these GCM products predict increases in annual discharge and peak flow, but also in the frequency of low flow periods. Early GCM models predicted these outcomes for periods starting as early as 2025 and one would expect that long-term precipitation, temperature, and discharge records start showing these trends. However, few studies have compared observed trends to GCM predicted trends in the United States. The objective of this study is to determine whether future climate trends and associated discharge trends predicted by GCM are already detectable. The study focuses on the Mark Twain Lake watershed, a Conservation Effect Assessment Program (CEAP) watershed in Northeast Missouri. We analyzed potential trends in long-term records (>50 years) of precipitation, temperature, and discharge at annual, seasonal, and monthly scale. We considered multiple climate indicators that characterize extreme and average temperature, rainfall amount, rainfall intensity, discharge, and peak discharge. We found that trends in many temperature and precipitation indicators already confirm the trends predicted by the GCM. However, stream base flow, number of zero flow days, or drought flow (minimum discharge over seven consecutive days that occurs on average once in 10 years) have increased at multiple gauges, which is contradictory with the increasing risk of drought predicted by the GCM and eco-hydrologic models. We will speculate on possible interpretations of this contradictory result.